Senior military officials from the United States and China used a conference in Singapore to push competing visions of Asia’s future security: a US-led safety net of well-armed partnerships versus a region where China is the centre of a new international order.
Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and officials from allied countries argued—implicitly or explicitly—that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed that Asia should urgently embrace a network of US-led alliances to tame the growing might of China. On Sunday, the Chinese defence minister, Gen Li Shangfu, methodically laid out criticisms of the US and presented Beijing as a contrast in leadership, increasingly confident in using its political, economic and military power to keep Asia stable.
“Certain countries wilfully interfered in other countries’ internal matters and regional affairs, frequently resort to unilateral sanctions and armed coercion,” Li said in an unmistakable reference to the US and its allies. They “create chaos in a region and then walk away, leaving a mess behind,” he said. “We never want to let this be replicated in the Asia-Pacific.”
The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore where Austin and Li spoke is one of the few regular forums where Beijing and Washington try to publicly win over Asian policymakers and publics. And this year’s meeting, which included defence ministers from Ukraine, Britain, Germany and Canada, cast in sharp relief how the rivalry between the US and China is becoming a contest over the future global geopolitical landscape: toward a resurgent American-dominated order with more active and engaged partners, or to one in which China leads, at least in Asia.
Hanging over their competing narratives was the war in Ukraine, along with the threat of conflict in Asia, where the risks of a volatile, unexpected collision between China and the US appear to be rising. On Saturday, the US’ Indo-Pacific Command said that an American naval destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, slowed to avoid a possible collision with a Chinese navy ship that crossed in front of the Chung-Hoon as it passed through the strait between China and Taiwan.
Li downplayed the near miss, saying that the best way to avoid an accident was for countries outside the region, like the US, to leave and “mind your own business.”
Many European officials at the conference, however, argued that their governments should become more involved in Asia, to protect their economies, and that Asian countries should do more to support Ukraine. Josep Borrell Fontelles, a foreign affairs and security official with the EU, called the war in Ukraine “a game changer” that had taught Europe “nothing is far away in a globalised world.” Security failures in one region “affect everyone,” he said.
As evidence, many European defence officials cited rising food prices worldwide caused by a stranglehold on grain exports from Ukraine. And they sought to portray Russia as a near-term threat to Asia with an able navy operating north of Japan and a global program designed to sabotage undersea cables connecting the internet and energy supplies across the region.
“All of those capabilities are coming into the Pacific, and we should realise what that means for our vulnerabilities,” said Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence minister.
China rejected the idea that Europe needed to play a bigger role in Asian security, describing it as a ploy by the US to establish an Asian-Pacific version of NATO.
Speaking at the conference, China’s former ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said the “best thing” Europe could do for Asia was to “do nothing,” adding, “We don’t need an Asian NATO.” Cui, who sat on a panel next to Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, urged Europe to learn from Asia’s “success” in maintaining regional peace and said China should learn from Europe’s “lack of success” by comparison.
It was a point that Chinese commanders made repeatedly: that, in Beijing’s view, the West’s efforts to encircle Russia had forced Moscow to go to war, and that any such strategy to contain China might provoke a similar outcome. As another Chinese official asked at the forum: “Have you ever thought that this way of containing itself is a problem proved by the war in Ukraine?”
But in a venue where Russia’s invasion was frequently described in the harshest terms, China’s continued support for Russia drew criticism as well. At the end of the session with Cui, Reznikov turned and spoke directly to the Chinese envoy about the shifting power dynamics between China and Russia. Unlike decades ago, he said, China is now the “older brother” and Russia the “younger brother.”
Highlighting the divide between Western powers and many developing countries on the question of the war, Indonesia’s defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, proposed a peace plan in Ukraine that did not include the withdrawal of Russian forces. Instead, he called for a cease-fire, the establishment of a demilitarised zone and an eventual referendum in contested territories.
The proposal drew instant criticism from Western officials, as well as from Reznikov. He said, “It sounds like a Russian plan.”
That wariness about China’s intentions and ambitions has spurred America’s allies in the region to strengthen their military ties with the West. Japan has led the way, announcing a few weeks ago that it was working toward the opening of a NATO liaison office in Tokyo.
While Chinese officials were quick to describe such efforts as futile and dangerous, Yasukazu Hamada, Japan’s defence minister, stressed that linkages across countries and regions were “not about fighting.”