The flags of China and Bangladesh.
Credit: iStock Photo
The student protests in Bangladesh which began against the proposed job quotas for freedom fighters led to the downfall of Sheikh Hasina and her exile. The situation continues to be volatile, however, an interim government under the leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been formed. Establishing law and order, and peace will be the immediate goal of the interim government. Foreign Affairs Advisor to Bangladesh's interim government, Md Touhid Hossain stated that, “We want to keep good relations with all. We need to maintain a balance of relations with the big countries”.
The unrest in Bangladesh has put the whole region on guard. This has emerged as a major diplomatic challenge for India and China. Bangladesh under Hasina managed to balance the pressure from China and India. The extension of the Teesta River project and the Mongla port project to India while the consistent pressure from Beijing were examples of her desire for economic growth and Dhaka’s independent foreign policy.
However, Hasina chose India as the first point of safe passage and this can upset New Delhi-Dhaka ties. The longer Hasina is in India, the bigger the diplomatic challenge for New Delhi. As Gayeshwar Roy, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), said, “The BNP believes that Bangladesh and India should have co-operation. The Indian government must understand and act following this spirit. However, supporting our adversaries complicates the maintenance of that cooperation”.
One also needs to look at what has been Beijing’s position towards the protests and the interim government, as China has major stakes in Bangladesh. Beijing’s investment has consistently increased after Dhaka joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Hasina managed to balance Bangladesh’s relationship with India and China, but her tenure also saw a major rise in Chinese investments.
Hasina in India can provide China with a very crucial card to assert its neutrality and gain a foot in the door with the new government and the BNP. In a statement issued after the formation of the interim government, Beijing underscored, “China strictly follows the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs. We respect Bangladesh’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and the development path independently chosen by the Bangladeshi people. We stand firmly by our policy of good neighbourliness and friendship with all people of Bangladesh.” Thus asserting Beijing’s long-term mantra of non-interference, and wait and watch. Chinese media further quoted the foreign ministry hoping that “As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic co-operative partner of Bangladesh, China sincerely hopes that social stability will be restored soon in the country.”
Media articles from China have openly argued that it will be beneficial for Dhaka to work with Beijing. An article in the Global Times quoting Lin Minwang, deputy director at the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University argued that “….. maintaining good relations with China, a country having the capacity without intention to interfere its internal affairs, is crucial for Bangladesh”. This is a jibe at India’s involvement in the situation.
Chinese companies are undertaking construction projects worth $23 billion in Bangladesh, and the protests have raised concerns for the safety of the people and equipment, clearly underscoring that the stakes are high for China to hope for peace and stability in Bangladesh.
The Global Times has even hinted that there may be a possible Western influence behind the protests. Beijing has used its media to push for a narrative of Western and Indian involvement, emphasising that it is Beijing’s neutrality that Dhaka should welcome.
Hasina’s presence in India is going to prove a major hurdle for continued good relations between India and Bangladesh. This is something which China is already exploiting to further strengthen its position. This also provided Beijing with a major opportunity to further entrench itself in the region, while New Delhi struggles.
(Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.