The road-based transport system in India accounts for 85% of the total transport demand. This is in terms of total passenger-kilometre travelled including by air as well as water transport systems. The road transport sector contributes to about 8% of GDP. Within this, buses account for 85% of all the passenger demand by road transportation. Therefore, it wouldn’t be unwise to say that buses are the lifeline of the country. In fact, the 2016 National Sample Survey reported that buses were the preferred mode of transport by respondents in both urban and rural areas. In urban areas, the mode share of buses is as high as 46% depending on the city size and type.
The growth of bus systems, however, is not proportionate to the growth in transport demand. While the growth in road passenger traffic is estimated to be around 15.4%, bus fleet is growing at a rate of 7%. Currently, 87% of all registered vehicles are privately owned, while buses form a meagre 0.74%. The demand-supply gap has led to the operation of overcrowded, uncomfortable and unsafe buses reducing their appeal to the masses, resulting in a shift toward travel by personal vehicles.
The struggling bus transport sector has received a massive blow due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is estimated that the bus transport sector will lose around Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2020 due to no and low-ridership amidst the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
Therefore, the bus transport network needs support more than it ever did. However, before that let us look at the sector closely.
Current state
Indian bus-based public transport is provided through a mixed pattern of public and private ownership and service provision. As per government data, there are 18 lakh registered buses in the country, of which approximately 1.4 lakh are operated by state transport undertakings and 1.8 lakh are operated by private operators under a stage-carriage permit. The remaining buses are either operated under contract-carriage permits or as private service vehicles or do not have valid permits.
The extent of the bus supply in India is anywhere between 0.5-1 bus per 1,000 population. State-owned buses specifically vary between 0.5 bus per 1,000 population in states like Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh to less than 0.1 bus per 1000 population in states like Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal. Additionally, 22% of the operational fleets are overaged, leading to unsafe and uncomfortable buses. The disparity in service provision extends in urban areas as well. Around 65% of the urban bus fleet is concentrated in nine cities (population more than 40 lakh) even when they house only 25% of the urban population. There are also huge gaps in bus depots and terminals, integration of intelligent technologies and technical capacity within the private and public sector to operate an efficient bus system that meets the needs of the customers. These factors combined have caused a decline in bus ridership throughout the country and a poor image of bus transport.
India’s bus-based public transport performs poorly when compared with bus systems of countries both in the developed and developing world. To compare, countries like Brazil, Thailand, China, Australia, United Kingdom and USA have between two to eight buses per 1000 population. Mexico is developing 38 Bus Rapid Transit Systems (BRTS) in its various cities as against 13 functional BRTS in various Indian cities. Cities like London, Seoul, Sao Paulo and Bogota have also prioritized investments in bus transport and witnessed an increase in bus ridership. The high levels of bus transport provision in these countries have been achieved through systematic policies, regulatory and institutional reforms and financial support enacted by the national and city governments to prioritize bus systems and boost their ridership.
Investment needed
Indian bus-based public transport has huge gaps in terms of bus fleet, depots and terminals required to operate buses. Additionally, bus operators have low cost recovery and lack capacity to plan and operate efficient bus systems. As per WRI India’s estimates, there is a need to procure up to 2.5 lakh new buses, with a requirement of approximately 2,500 new bus depots, and 1,200 new bus terminals to meet the public transportation demand by 2031. There is also a need to support the operations of these buses which will cover approximately 180 billion kilometres over their life cycle. Of this, 40 billion kilometres will be operated in the 53 cities which have a population of more than a million. Then there are costs of procuring intelligent technologies and building technical capacity and human resource to operate these buses. It is estimated that to build an efficient bus-based public transport by 2031, an investment of Rs 2.3 lakh crore is required.
World over, countries are supporting buses in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. The US has earmarked $25 billion in emergency funding to public transport. Hong Kong is supporting taxi and minibus drivers and owners by reimbursing 100% of regular repair and maintenance costs and insurance premiums for six months.
India has been investing in public transport infrastructure. About Rupees two lakh crores has already been invested and another Rupees three lakh crore of expenditure is in the pipeline for metro rail and rapid rail projects. However, it’s time to relook at the bus transport space. We need to remember that if cities are engines of growth then transport is the wheel of the engine and the bus is probably the most important ‘spoke’ of this wheel.
(The writer is Director -- Integrated Transport, Sustainable Cities, World Resources Institute India)