India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
Credit: PTI Photo
Prime Minister Narendra Modi broke the tradition by excluding his National Security Adviser Ajit Doval from his entourage for the visit to the United States. The explanation that Doval stayed back to deal with the security situation arising from the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir election and other ‘domestic issues’ won’t fly. In fact, the government invited foreign diplomats to witness the election in J&K. The first phase of polling registered an impressive 61% voter turnout.
Conceivably, Doval stood down from the US trip because of a New York court’s summons on September 18 stemming from a lawsuit filed by the US-based Sikh lawyer Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an advocate of Khalistan and a US citizen. In a stunning development, the White House followed up on September 19 when senior officials took the initiative to hold an unprecedented meeting with a group of pro-Khalistan Sikh activists to discuss threats against their community, and share perspectives on the ‘conversations’ with the Modi government regarding the alleged Indian plot to assassinate Pannun.
The US prosecutors have connected the alleged plot against Pannun with the killing of Canadian national and Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar for whose murder Prime Minister Justin Trudeau blamed Indian government agents. Trudeau’s allegation was based on inputs from the White House. Suffice to say, Washington and Ottawa are moving in tandem.
In effect, the summons from the US justice department makes Doval a fugitive from US law. Equally, Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) is also implicated in Pannun’s lawsuit. A curious situation is arising insofar as from an Indian perspective, Doval’s 10-year stint as NSA is marked by extraordinary achievements. The comprehensive rollback of Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism; J&K’s transition out of Article 370; the improvement of the security situation in J&K and the ongoing election — Doval played a key role in all these, and the nation is grateful to him. Any genuine friend of India should be happy about it too, but the US is gunning for Doval, which raises doubts about American intentions.
The ‘big picture’ is indeed extremely complex. Our ‘hug diplomacy’ notwithstanding, Washington has no liking for the Modi government, but it needs India’s co-operation and goes the extra league to forge a good transactional relationship. Senator Marco Rubio’s recent Bill puts India on par with NATO allies.
The US takes great interest in India’s rapidly growing market but is also wary of a ‘second China’ rising in Asia. The US cherishes a democratic, secular India, but India is moving in an opposite direction. The US expects India to be its ally but realises that India’s vaulting ambition is to be no less than a superpower itself, which makes it a potential competitor. An assertive India is unwelcome, but our Hindu nationalist government is all pumped up with hubris and self-righteous arrogance.
India is a crucial member of the anti-China grouping, but that is a role that a Congress government can also perform, which is even preferable for projecting a US-led coalition of Asian democracies. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has, arguably, ‘peaked’, and the ascendancy of Congress as India’s ruling party in a conceivable future is no longer wishful thinking. The US would welcome Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as India’s future prime minister — cosmopolitan and modern, Western-oriented, secular, and genuinely committed to democratic values — but, meanwhile, it needs to do business with Modi.
In such complex circumstances, Washington invariably creates pressure points. Washington’s experience shows that ‘strongman’ leaders do understand the language of coercion, and will compromise if that is what is needed for their political survival. Washington is administering ‘shock and awe’ hoping Modi will act on it.
So far, India’s appeasement strategy worked — keeping Washington in good humour through mega arms deals and trade in services and invisibles. But there is a paradigm shift now as Washington is virtually seeking Doval’s replacement — and, there is no question of throwing Doval under the bus.
That said, a collision with the US is not in India’s interests. It is the most consequential relationship by far for India for decades to come. So, a middle ground is to be found. That demands policy review at the highest level as regards guardrails in the government’s fight against terrorism and separatism. Even without the Pannun case, an honest appraisal is long overdue to strengthen the rule of law. Of course, the red line requires that friendly countries like the US and Canada should show goodwill to curb extremists. It takes two to tango.
(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.