Sri Lankan flags are seen during the protest against former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, April, 2022.
Credit: Reuters File Photo
The upcoming September 21 presidential election in Sri Lanka is unique in many ways. Yet, the maxim, ‘The more things change, the more they remain the same,’ applies even more, indicating how complex, if not complicated, the situation is becoming.
Sri Lanka is possibly one of a kind, where Arab Spring-like Aragalaya mass protests for regime change stopped with the forced exile and subsequent resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. The constitutional scheme then retrieved the processes without effort, and the democratically-elected Parliament chose a successor for the residual term.
The nation put imminent anarchy behind it, and lofty talk of a ‘systems change’ became a theoretical diatribe. Questions will remain if Aragalaya, as against the Arab Spring, set a refined marker for the recent regime change in the South Asian neighbourhood of Bangladesh, without crude killing of leaders, destruction of institutions, and abrogation of the Constitution, all at once.
This election in Sri Lanka is unique also because, for the first time, there are more than two possible victors. There is speculation about whether the vote count will include a second and third-preference vote count if no candidate secures the mandated 50 per cent minimum in the first round. There is no precedent of the count going into the second-preference stage, and candidates are shy of appealing for one as it is tantamount to conceding the election early on.
The irony is that if no candidate crosses the 50 per cent mark, the leading candidate from the first phase would still be declared elected. Why, then, prescribe the rigmarole in the first place? For now, the Supreme Court ticking off incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Election Commission for not conducting the nationwide local government polls when due is a guarantor that the constitutional watchdog will not allow a miscarriage if the first phase count is not decisive.
Election of defections
There are 39 candidates in the fray. The top line-up comprises incumbent Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP), the nation’s decimated GOP, Sajith Premadasa of the breakaway Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), who is also the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in Parliament, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), leader of the post-democratised left-militant Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). Namal Rajapaksa, representing the Rajapaksa clan, thrust himself into the frontline at the last minute, not because he hopes to win but to reserve a slot in the presidential poll five years hence, as if the present one is an Olympic qualifier.
There are known faces like those of Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and former Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, who are among the also-ran Independents. The list includes ‘proxies’, whose job is to cut into a main rival’s traditional vote share.
For the third time, the UNP has discarded its ‘Elephant’ symbol, after 2010 and 2015, when it backed ‘common Opposition candidates’ against entrenched incumbent, Mahinda Rajapaksa. After a break in 2019, when Premadasa was the pre-split UNP candidate, Wickremesinghe is now contesting as an Independent, trying to mop up the large number of ‘undecided swing voters’. His symbol, ‘Cooking Gas Cylinder,’ is both a recall of the Aragalaya crisis period and the relative ease, later on.
All told, the crowded frontline is due to the relatively recent decimation of the nation’s political legacy, pre-Aragalaya. Leave aside the UNP-SJB split, which alone has made the frontline look confusing, the last-minute defection of about 100 MPs from the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) to the Wickremesinghe camp has added Namal’s name, when it was not expected.
All three represent well-entrenched political families. In the presence of the once also-ran JVP’s Dissanayake—an early favourite for pollsters but not anymore—the presidential contest looks disappointing for some and familiar to all. The presence of a JVP breakaway candidate from the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) does not seem to be making a difference, but neither has claimed the honours for Aragalaya’s success as thought to be, nor owned up responsibility for coordinated arson attacks on properties owned by then SLPP parliamentarians and other leaders.
Most of them have migrated to the Wickremesinghe camp after the two-year-long official cohabitation, leading to the SLPP having to field Namal, if only to protect its identity and his political future. No MP has complained about the government not booking the arsonists despite early promises to the contrary.
All about IMF norms
Traditionally, the promise to abolish the ‘Executive Presidency’ used to be the main poll slogan for all. This time, the SJB/JVP candidates have promised the same, but it has lost its charm. Instead, it is all about the economy. Incumbent Wickremesinghe is boldly shooting from the hip, saying that ‘Sri Lanka can’ recover and that ‘economic discipline’ means tough choices that accompany IMF conditionalities for a part-released $3.9-b bailout package. After separate meetings with IMF officials months back, both Premadasa and Dissanayake promised to ‘renegotiate’ IMF terms that are globally standardised.
It is all about the ‘pauperised’ middle class that now spreads beyond the capital, Colombo. They are yet to recover from the income-and-price shocks since Aragalaya. The less said about the nation’s poor, the better.
In the face of higher taxes and tariffs, job-cut threats, and empty pockets, Premadasa has promised ‘Capitalism with a humane face’ but has yet to exemplify it. Centre-left Dissanayake recently promised VAT removal on food, medical, and educational items without explaining how he hoped to address the higher deficit—and also please the IMF, with which they are all stuck. They need to say more to convince the voters. Wickremesinghe should also speak about releasing individuals and families from debt burdens, not just the nation's debt.
Shocking silence
All big talk of IMF aid and conditions apart, India as the northern neighbour continues to be remembered as the first and biggest responder with food, fuel, and medicines, beginning with the Covid era, continuing into the pre-Aragalaya period, and remains so to date. Wickremesinghe has not fought shy of acknowledging it. He swears by the ‘Vision Statement’ from his Delhi visit last year. The JVP’s traditional anti-India approach too has been blunted after Team Dissanayake’s India visit earlier this year. In contrast, Premadasa’s ‘muted respect’ is somewhat deafening.
Similarly, entrenched civil society and environmental protestors oppose all things India: the former’s wanton recall of New Delhi allegedly ‘propping up’ Tamil terrorism in the eighties, and the latter now moving the Supreme Court against Indian investments, specifically the Adani Group’s green energy projects. It stands out against their shocking silence over China-funded ‘white elephant’ projects that contributed to the continuing debt crisis and also over the surrender of territory and sovereignty by leasing out the strategically-located southernmost Hambantota site on a 99-year lease.
Wickremesinghe has since made partial amends by denying berthing rights for Chinese (and other overseas) ‘research vessels’ (spy ships) for a year, ending 31 December, but only after allowing two controversial landings earlier. It will now be for the post-poll leadership to take a call on this and other concerns of India. This includes the ‘fishers’ dispute, where alone there is a national consensus against ‘poaching’ by Indian tradesmen from Tamil Nadu.
On the crucial ethnic issue, the three major Sinhala candidates have promised full implementation of the India-facilitated 13th Amendment on power devolution from 1987. The divided Tamil polity, including those backing a symbolic ‘common Tamil candidate’, all want more after swearing by 13A not very long ago. New Delhi can pause over the UNHRC vote on accountability issues in early October. For, the new government can be expected to buy time from the US-led core group, which is the driving force.
(The writer is a Chennai-based policy analyst & political commentator)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.