Recent history is repeating itself in Nepal, with the Supreme Court reinstating parliament for the second time in five months. However, unlike the judicial verdict of February, this time the apex court has also ordered the appointment of Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba as the country’s 43rd prime minister. Back in May, Deuba had presented the signatures of 149 legislators to President Bidya Devi Bhandari as evidence of support for a government led by him. But Bhandari had rejected Deuba’s claim under Article 76(5) to form a government and, on the advice of Oli, dissolved parliament and called for fresh elections. The SC has righted that wrong now by not only declaring Bhandari’s decision to be unconstitutional but also appointing Deuba as prime minister under Article 76(5). The SC verdict puts Nepal’s constitution, which suffered a series of debilitating blows over the past year, back on track. Some have criticised the verdict as an example of judicial activism, but the verdict was aimed at ending the political impasse.
Oli, who tried every trick in the book to cling to power, has finally been ousted. He has no one but himself to blame. When he took charge as PM, he enjoyed unprecedented support; the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) enjoyed a two-thirds majority. But poor governance, his insatiable greed for power, and arrogance contributed to his fall. Deuba finds himself in the PM’s chair now not because of electoral success but because his predecessor messed things up so badly. He takes charge at a time when Nepal is facing multiple crises. Democratic institutions are declining, and the administration has been in a state of paralysis for over a year. The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Nepal hard. Additionally, the economy is in a crisis. While these issues require Deuba’s immediate and focused attention, he will be distracted by the vote of confidence his government is due to face in a month. It is unclear at this point whether he will win that vote as those who backed him in May might not do so now.
Oli may be sitting in the opposition now but he still heads the largest party in parliament and can be expected to woo not only CPN-UML dissidents but also Deuba’s opponents in the NC. To win the vote of confidence, Deuba will therefore need to not only hold his flock in the NC together but also ensure that the Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party, which voted with Oli during the trust vote, supports the new government.