A year after the United States and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, Afghanistan is no closer to even the tiniest bit of peace or security. Indeed, violence levels have soared over the past year. According to United Nations Mission to Afghanistan’s annual report, civilians bore the brunt of the fighting: 8,820 civilians perished over the past year. The Doha Agreement provided for a withdrawal of all US soldiers in 18 months in return for the Taliban participating in talks with the Afghan government. The Taliban also promised to stop providing shelter to foreign terrorist groups on Afghan soil. The agreement was met with great scepticism by the Afghan government and countries like India. Still, the Ashraf Ghani government went along with the accord, released thousands of Taliban prisoners to pave the way for the intra-Afghan talks. However, a year since the US and the Taliban signed the agreement, the security situation in Afghanistan is alarming; multiple massacres have happened even in Kabul. And while intra-Afghan talks began in September, they stalled for weeks with the Taliban refusing to show up at the negotiating table.
The US is reviewing the Doha Agreement. This is understandable. The pact, which was negotiated and signed by the Donald Trump administration, was flawed to begin with. Anxious to pull out its soldiers to win votes at home, Trump did not bother to get the Taliban to commit and deliver on promises. It made a few concessions. Despite the repeated requests of the Afghan government and the international community, the Taliban did not declare a ceasefire and has persisted with its violent campaign. Withdrawing American troops in such circumstances would be dangerous. Hence, the US could keep its forces in Afghanistan past May. The Taliban is upset with the US decision and could walk out of the Doha pact. While this would be unfortunate, persisting with an agreement that has not seen the Taliban emerge a responsible actor or brought peace to the Afghan people makes little sense.
On Tuesday, the Taliban announced that it is returning to the Doha talks. This is a tactical move aimed at blaming the Americans for the likely end of the Doha Agreement. A sharp surge in violence can be expected in the coming months. The Taliban’s spring offensive lies ahead. With many of its fighters freed from Afghan prisons, its capacity for fighting has grown. Pakistan will play an important role in the unfolding scenario. Its continued support to the Taliban will fuel further violence. It will suffer the blowback.