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A recent report in the international medical journal Lancet which said India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level, and is set to fall further, has attracted much attention. The fall in the TFR has serious implications for the country. In 2021, India’s TFR was at 1.91 children per woman, below the necessary replacement fertility level of 2.1, and is expected to go down to 1.29 by 2050. That shows the country is undergoing a major demographic shift. By 2025, one in five persons will be above 60 years which is beyond the productive age group. The first inference from the projections is that India’s current demographic dividend will soon disappear as the share of its working-age population will peak in the late 2030s or early 2040s. So, it has only a few years to provide adequate education and health facilities to its young and make use of its population advantage.
The experience of other countries is that it is not possible to raise the TFR after it starts falling. No developed country has been able to do it. China’s remarkable economic progress happened when the country made good use of its demographic dividend for over two decades from the 1980s. Its TRF and working-age population have started falling now, and the country is facing economic and social problems arising from the changing nature of its demography. An ageing population, shrinking labour force, and social imbalances of various types present many challenges in such a scenario. Most countries in the world will be in the same situation as India will be by the second half of this century, except countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It is estimated that India’s fertility rate will drop to one child per woman by the turn of the century.
India has serious tasks before it, all to be addressed at the same time. It must formulate and implement policies and practices which will make best use of its young population. If it fails to do it, it will not only miss its demographic opportunity but will also face social and economic strife along with political problems. Plans will have to be made to ensure social security, healthcare, and welfare of the increasing elderly population. India is also in a unique situation where the TFR varies significantly from region to region. This means the population will be increasing in some areas while it will be declining in other areas. This will give rise to issues related to mobility and migration. Uneven growth of the population will have social and political consequences also. India must start planning for all the possibilities right now.