The National League for Democracy, which spearheaded Myanmar’s struggle for democracy for decades, has won a resounding victory in elections to local and national bodies. This is its second victory in a row under the new constitution and the party has not only won a majority in parliament but also improved on its showing in the 2015 election. Clearly, the NLD still commands the overwhelming support of the people of Myanmar; it has won almost every seat in the Bamar-majority areas and has outperformed ethnic parties in the seven ethnic states. Voters have inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a proxy of the country’s powerful military, the Tatmadaw. The USDP has won fewer seats than it did in 2015 and has performed poorly even in its former strongholds. As heartening as voter rejection of the military is the Myanmar Election Commission’s conduct of the elections. Holding elections amidst a pandemic was bound to be challenging, all the more so for a fledgling democracy. Yet, the MEC was successful in conducting an election that international monitors have endorsed as free and fair.
But the gains democracy has made during the recent elections are in danger. USDP leaders have said that they will go to court over “some controversies surrounding the voting process.” Their rejection of the people’s mandate is disturbing, especially since they could be voicing the views of the Tatmadaw. A few days before the elections, the military threatened President U Win Myint with impeachment if he failed to “properly uphold constitutional responsibilities.” The military’s continued perception of itself as the supreme arbiter of power in Myanmar does not bode well for democracy.
The NLD’s impressive electoral performance has been attributed to the immense popularity of its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. Clearly, the support she enjoys has not diminished. But her popularity alone will not be enough to keep the NLD in power or ensure the health of democracy in Myanmar in the coming years. The NLD’s performance in power was underwhelming as economic problems persisted and national reconciliation with alienated ethnic nationalities made little headway during its first term at the helm. Indeed, the Rohingya problem worsened over the past five years and, worryingly, the NLD supported the Tatmadaw’s brutal military operations against the Rohingya Muslims. Many of the NLD’s failings in power can be attributed to the military’s reluctance to allow it to function. However, this cannot remain an excuse for underperformance in its second term at the helm.