With candidates being announced for most seats, Himachal Pradesh has moved into top election gear. There are just three weeks to go for polling, which is scheduled for November 12. The campaign has perceptibly hotted up. Himachal Pradesh is a small state with only 68 seats in the Assembly, but the context in which the election is being held and its circumstances will make it more important than it could otherwise be. It is a two-party state where governments have usually alternated between the Congress and the BJP since 1990. But such traditions have not always worked, and in neighbouring Uttarakhand the BJP managed to retain power earlier this year. It is difficult to say which way the winds are blowing in the hill state.
As the campaign progresses, the BJP seems to be depending more on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi than on its local leadership. Modi visited the state during Dasara and launched the Vande Bharat Express with much fanfare. Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur was an accidental Chief Minister who came to office because Prem Kumar Dhumal lost his seat in the last election. He is non-controversial but has not made much impact. The party’s main campaign theme is about the double-engine – BJP at the Centre and in the state -- government. The Congress desperately needs to win the state, having lost Punjab and Uttarakhand earlier this year. The victory in four recent by-elections in the state had boosted it but the party does not have a state-wide leader after the death of Virbhadra Singh. It does not have a leader to project as the chef ministerial candidate. The party’s troubles at the national level and in other states would haunt it, and its new president Mallikarjun Kharge will hardly have an impact. It is hoping to cash in on anti-incumbency sentiments, the worsening economic situation and the damage to the tourism industry. There are also local issues relating to the demands of government staff and apple growers. The AAP had plans for the state but after desertions by some key leaders, the party seems to be concentrating more on Gujarat where, too, elections are to be held.
A new election season starts in the country with the Himachal election marking its beginning. Gujarat will soon go to the polls, and it will be followed by Assembly elections in nine states, including Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana in the next one year. In most of these states, the main contenders are the BJP and Congress. So, the results in Himachal Pradesh may have an impact on the results of electoral contests in the coming months.