Normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan has hit an early road bump with the Pakistani government recently doing a dramatic about-turn on a decision it made only a day before regarding resumption of trade with India. Last week, its Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) gave its green signal for importing cotton and sugar from India. However, a day later, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s cabinet shot down the decision. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said that so long as India doesn’t review its decision to revoke Jammu & Kashmir’s autonomy, Pakistan would not resume trade with India. When the two countries announced in February that they would firmly adhere to the ceasefire along the Line of Control, it did seem that they were looking to normalise ties, but Qureshi connecting talks to the reinstatement of Article 370 suggests that there are contradictory interests asserting themselves in Pakistan’s complex politics.
It is likely that pressure from the Pakistan military prompted the Imran Khan government to make the U-turn on trading with India, with the military top brass itself perhaps under pressure after it made the surprise move on the ceasefire deal. The military has much to gain from keeping relations with India hostile. It can not only justify endless hikes in budget allocations for weaponry but the ‘India threat’ also helps the military leadership keep both its own officers and the country’s politicians in check. It is unfortunate that the civilian government did not stand up to the military. After all, restoring trade with India would be beneficial to the Pakistani economy. Pakistan is battling serious inflation and importing basic commodities was among the measures that the ECC, its top economic body, decided on to keep inflation down. By suspending trade again, Pakistan stands to lose. Islamabad has once again cut off its nose to spite its face.
Hawks in India will use Pakistan’s volte-face to argue that Delhi must abandon the effort to normalise relations with Pakistan as this is not productive. That is not true. Developments over the past year have shown that India’s big strategic challenge is China. A return to Vajpayee-era wisdom clearly dictates that it is best to normalise relations with Pakistan so as to be able to play in the bigger league. India must persist with talks with Pakistan, however frustrating it may be to do so. Normalisation of relations is never a smooth, trouble-free process. There are spoilers in both countries who are keen to derail the process. Delhi must be patient in dealing with Pakistan.