Maharashtra’s nearly fortnight-long drama spread over four states saw Uddhav Thackeray resign as Chief Minister on Wednesday night and then had an unexpected climax on Thursday with the Shiv Sena’s rebel leader Eknath Shinde being sworn in as Chief Minister. Thackeray resigned claiming that he did not want to hang on to power, but it was clear that he did not have any other option before him, except to be voted out of office in the Assembly on Thursday. This denouement was written in the script from the beginning. With two-thirds of the Sena members turning rebels, the hope for survival of the MVA alliance government rested on the slender prospect that some rebels would return to the Thackeray camp, others could be disqualified, or that a trust vote could be delayed. When none of this was possible, there was no way out but to resign. But it is difficult to see why Thackeray threw in the towel the previous day. A resignation after making a fighting speech in the Assembly might have sent out a stronger political message.
The MVA experiment was not uncommon, and it held its own for over 30 months in the face of many challenges. It cannot be said that it collapsed under its own contradictions because of ideological disagreement, as is made out by the rebels. Some MLAs were under pressure due to Enforcement Directorate action against them. Many were not comfortable under the ‘inaccessible’ Thackeray’s leadership. Some, like Eknath Shinde, had felt marginalised in the party and government. Some others were not sure of their future as discussions about tickets for the next election had already started doing the rounds.
Even as Shinde has been sworn in as Chief Minister, the BJP has emerged as the real victor in the drama, even at the cost of the ambition of its leader and former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is now to be Shinde’s deputy. It was able to split the Shiv Sena, which has been its competitor in the Hindutva space for long. It has come back to power in Maharashtra, which is among the country’s most important states. It is a tactical stroke on the BJP’s part to offer the chief ministership to the rebel Sena leader. Even as it takes the No 2 position, it will wield actual power in the government. It is the BJP’s 106 MLAs propping up a Chief Minister with 39 MLAs, and he will rule at its pleasure. The Shiv Sena is still the loser, with both the factions facing the challenge of proving themselves to be the real party. The chief ministership may help the rebel faction, but both the factions will have to fight it out on the ground.