The run-up to the presidential election has started with the Election Commission’s announcement of its schedule. While June 29 is the last date for candidates to file papers, voting will be held, if necessary, on July 18 and the result will be announced on July 21. The election is important as it will decide who will hold the country’s highest office, but its significance is more symbolic and suggestive than substantive in the present circumstances. Most presidential elections have been of that nature, except when Indira Gandhi bested the Congress party’s ‘Syndicate’ with her support to V V Giri and ensured his election, changing the course of politics in the country. After that, the elections were significant essentially for the choice of candidates and the meanings governments and parties attached to their choices. This year’s election is unlikely to be different, though in politics, there is always scope for surprises.
The BJP-led NDA is well placed to get its candidate elected as it has a near-majority in the electoral college consisting of MPs and MLAs. It is only slightly short of the 50% mark but will most probably get help from parties like the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the YSR Congress (YSRC) and the AIADMK. There will be some interest in whether the opposition parties, which will field their candidate to prove their political point, will try to woo these parties, or even the JD(U), which is the BJP’s partner in Bihar, or whether these parties will lay down conditions for their support to the NDA candidate. Even within the NDA, it will be the BJP and in that party it will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi who will decide who the candidate will be. Among the opposition parties, it is almost certain that the Congress in its diminished state will not have a decisive say in the choice of the candidate. It is likely that the Opposition will field a common candidate but leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar and M K Stalin will have an important role in the choice.
There is speculation about the choice of the NDA candidate. But it is almost certain that President Ramnath Kovind will not be fielded for a second time. The BJP is likely to find a candidate from social groups or regions to which it wants to make a political outreach. Women, tribals, Muslims or the southern or the north-eastern regions would figure in such calculations. The Opposition might name its candidate only after the choice of the ruling party is known so that it can make the best response to it. In any case, the election is going to be more a clash of messages than of parties and candidates.