Just when it seemed that Nepal had finally ended decades of turmoil by enacting a new Constitution and forming a coalition government, political instability has erupted again. Its government was on the brink of collapse last week, when the Unified Communist Party of Nepal – Maoists (UCPN-M), on the urging of the opposition Nepali Congress, threatened to withdraw support to the government. It appears that the NC promised to support a UCPN-M led government if the latter agreed to topple the ruling coalition led by the Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML). Accordingly, UCPN-M chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who has been eyeing the prime minister’s seat, warned Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli that the Maoists were withdrawing support to his government as it had failed to make progress on the constitutional amendment process and the post-earthquake reconstruction in the country. However, Dahal did a U-turn after doing a deal with the CPN-UML under which Oli has pledged to speed up reconstruction, address Madhesi demands and grant clemency to Maoist fighters among other things. The deal has given Oli’s government a fresh lease of life.
A section of Nepalis are accusing India of plotting with the Nepali Congress to oust Oli. They allege that Oli’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy and its growing proximity to China riled India, prompting it to attempt regime change in Kathmandu. Thecancellation of the Nepali President Bidhya Devi Bhandari’s visit to India and Kathmandu’s reported recall of its envoy in Delhi, Ambassador Deep Kumar Upadhyaya, have further fuelled such speculation. Nepal’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Kamal Thapa
has however dismissed as “baseless” reports of the envoy’s recall. Whether or not India is behind the current upheaval in Nepal, it is evident that the perception of India as a perpetual meddler in Nepal’s politics remains strong. It has its roots in the groundswell of anti-India sentiment in the country. More political jockeying, horse-trading and deal making is likely in Nepal in the coming weeks and months. India must keep a low profile and avoid giving Nepal gratuitous advice or ideas. The political quagmire in Nepal is of its politicians’ making and India will do well to avoid getting its hands mired in that mess.
Prime Minister Oli is running on borrowed time as Dahal can be expected to renew his ouster warning in a couple of months. Oli escaped ouster by the skin of his teeth this time; he may not be as lucky next time. He will need to deliver on his pledges.