Representative image.
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The consequences of climate change have been widely discussed but its impact on politics has received little attention, especially in India. In fact, climate change can turn out to be the biggest disruptor of economy and society, and can do more damage than wars. Like all calamities it will affect the poorest more than the others. All its consequences, like job losses, production shortfalls, price increases and impaired health, will be felt more by the poor than by the better off. Inequality, which is already a serious issue, will worsen. When the economic and social situations aggravate, politics is impacted, too. Political parties in India have not taken climate change into consideration and have no policy or plan to counter it. In some countries, parties are exclusively dedicated to environment and climate protection. Parties will sooner or later have to change their agenda, in line with the new concerns. It is likely that present day politics and many of its concerns will become irrelevant in the not too distant future. Climate change is present and real, while many current concerns of our political parties are not.
The changing scenario is particularly important because India will be among the countries to be worst hit by climate change. Many warnings have underlined this. The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) review of 2023 shows that it was the warmest year on record since 1901 for India, with the annual average surface temperature being 0.65 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. It also said that all the five warmest years had been recorded in the last 15 years. India experienced extreme weather events like excessive rains, cyclones, floods and droughts more frequently. The calendar of weather changed, with December seeing very high rainfall and the South experiencing the highest post-monsoon rainfall.
It is estimated that climate change can cost the Indian economy 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and can upset its plans to become a developed nation by 2050. According to the World Bank, India will account for more than 40 per cent of global job losses caused by the impact of climate change by 2030. This prospect is forbidding when unemployment levels are already high. Social disruption could increase. Climate migration could add to the economic migration of people across states. It has already started with people moving out of places prone to extreme weather. All this will impact politics, and the themes of old politics will necessarily see changes.