Demonstrators take part in a symbolic funeral for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh who was killed in Iran, in Amman, Jordan August 3, 2024.
Credit: Reuters Photo
Hundreds of hotel rooms in Israel have been requisitioned by the Ministry of Health in anticipation of a full-scale war with Iran and its Middle East proxies, who have vowed to avenge the assassination of three prominent Palestinian and Lebanese operatives.
Some big hospitals within Israel have also evacuated their underground parking lots in anticipation of receiving a high number of casualties in the event of hostilities erupting in the next few days.
Israeli civil defence and medical authorities have additionally been broadcasting instructions to the general population about how to react and who to contact. The country’s national electricity company has contributed to the national anxiety by declaring that it anticipates blackouts ranging from 12 to 48 hours if its plants are hit by drones and missiles. As a result of these warnings, Israelis have besieged local shops to buy generators and batteries.
While no one can anticipate the precise nature of the incoming attack, the general expectation is that thousands of drones and missiles will soon be launched from multiple sites in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.
Last April there was a similar missile onslaught, albeit on a much smaller scale, when Iran sent more than 300 drones and rockets to attack Israeli targets in retaliation for the assassination of a top Iranian military commander based in Syria. The subsequent rocket attack on Israel was successfully foiled, with only one young girl seriously injured.
Back in April, the Iranians also sent out an advance warning that they planned to attack, reinforcing their declared intent to avoid an all-out war. On this occasion, furious Iranian leaders have declared that this time their reaction will be very different.
The assassination in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh amounts to a severe humiliation for Iranian leaders who had invited him to attend the swearing-in of the country’s newly elected president. Although Israel has not officially taken responsibility for his killing, there is no doubt that Tel Aviv was behind the fiendishly clever tactic of planting a bomb in his heavily guarded state guest house.
From the Iranian perspective, a lack of response would not only damage the country’s prestige but also label the country’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as weak and ineffectual. Dignity is all important throughout the Middle East, and the humiliation suffered by Iran can only be eradicated if Tehran sanctions a major operation against Israel. Following Haniyeh’s funeral, Khamenei was quoted as saying, “It is our duty to seek revenge for his blood, as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Haniyeh’s assassination took place hours after an Israeli drone attack killed Fuad Shukr, whom the Israelis describe as the chief of staff for Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hizbollah, the deadliest and most threatening of all the proxies engaged in war with Israel.
It took Hizbollah two days to confirm Shukr’s death. Hizbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah later declared a suitable retaliation had been agreed, but he has refused to go into any details, leaving the Israelis guessing and adding to their anxieties about what to expect.
Israeli political and security analysts have so far discussed any number of possible scenarios for Hizbollah’s imminent revenge. These include the possible targeting of senior Israeli leaders, the mass launch of rockets on Israeli cities, or an attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission anywhere in the world.
Until today, Israel and Hizbollah have been engaged in what is described as low-intensity warfare along the Israeli-Lebanon border, amounting to a controlled exchange with both sides anxious to avoid any escalation. Within the context of this unwritten agreement, Israel avoided attacks on Beirut, and Hizbollah—for its part—avoided direct attacks on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. According to Nasrallah, the rules of the game have now changed.
Where Hamas is concerned, it seems they have been unable to launch even a single rocket in retaliation for the killing of both Haniyeh and military commander Mohammed Deif, who was killed
two weeks ago during an Israeli air strike in the Gaza Strip. Deif’s death
was only confirmed on August 1 by the Israeli army, which is openly boasting about his elimination.
Deif was the number one target on Israel’s list of wanted terrorists. For the past two decades, he managed to avoid attempts to kill him, earning him the title of ‘The Man of Nine Souls’.
The reason why Hamas so far has proven unable to retaliate is the heavy presence of the Israeli army throughout Gaza, which says it has destroyed much of Hamas’s infrastructure, including thousands of rocket launchers and mortars that were previously launched against Israeli targets on a regular basis.
Hamas leaders in both Gaza and Qatar have also vowed to avenge the killing of Haniyeh. So far they refuse to acknowledge the death of Deif, not least because they want to avoid damaging the morale of their own front-line fighters. Like Hizbollah, Hamas could also step up terrorist attacks inside Israel and the occupied West Bank.
For their part, the Israeli authorities are doing their best to maintain calm by sending out messages that Israel is fully prepared and there is no need to panic. Israeli army commanders are on record as saying the country’s air defences have been boosted and they are confident they can deal with any incoming rockets and drones. They also claim that the country’s friends and allies, including the Americans, Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordanians, have promised to help intercept any incoming attacks, just as they did last April.
Last week, the United States military moved four warships to the Mediterranean, including the USS Wasp, close to Cyprus, as part of an allied support force and pledged on August 3 to deploy additional fighter jets and more warships to the Middle East amid mounting concerns of potential military retaliation from Iran.
At a press conference in the Philippines, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the emphasis was on de-escalating tensions but went on to say, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that in April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
Meanwhile, multiple international airlines, including Air India, have cancelled flights to Tel Aviv, adding to fears that the region is hovering on the brink of a major war. How Israel responds to any attacks will determine whether the current crisis conflict escalates into an even bigger confrontation. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has vowed that any forthcoming attack on Israel would result in an immediate and harsh response. After a three-hour-long meeting with his security cabinet last August 1, he announced, “We are ready for every scenario and will stand united and determined against every threat,” adding Israel would “exact a very heavy price for any aggression against us.”
(The writer is a London-based senior journalist)