Is the Congress on the cusp of a revival via gains in some vital states? Recent events suggest this could be the case.
After the decisive win in Karnataka in May, comes the news of many members of the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in election-bound Telangana joining the Congress, with more to go. On May 13, this author had flagged the possibility of a Congress revival in Telangana on the heels of the Karnataka mandate.
In Himachal Pradesh, which the Congress narrowly wrested from the BJP in late 2022, one can find disenchantment with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP has its ideologically-committed voters, yet the spell cast by the Prime Minister has lifted, and issues such as LPG prices, pension schemes, and price rise seem to be gaining traction. It should not be forgotten that the BJP’s presence in Himachal Pradesh precedes the Modi era, and, as seen in Karnataka, the party old guard in the state has been sidelined.
In a state with high levels of literacy, there is now frequent mocking of the showmanship of India’s national leadership by citizens who come from social groups (Brahmins and Thakurs) otherwise perceived to be BJP voters in the Hindi belt. It’s a curious time when change is crystalising, but it’s early days to predict a national outcome.
Manipur where the BJP won a simple majority in March 2022 is on fire, and is being ripped apart. Will the political impact of this violence and bloodshed be limited to the state’s borders, or could the BJP’s conquest of the North-East through direct electoral victory in Assam, Tripura, and Manipur, and ‘management’ of parties in other states come under threat?
Meanwhile, in the Hindi belt, reports from Madhya Pradesh suggest the Congress could defeat the BJP even as it seems poised to retain power in Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, there are divisions in both the ruling Congress and the BJP. The big picture emerging is that besides Telangana, where the Congress is suddenly surging, it could do well in the state elections later this year.
Yet, victory in assembly elections will not automatically translate to a good show in the 2024 general elections. It did not work in 2019, when the Congress came to power in three states in late 2018 — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. The three states’ mandate had also misled the first BJP Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee: after poll victories in 2003 in these three states, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) advanced the general elections of 2004. It was here that BJP’s infamous ‘India Shining’ campaign backfired and saw the Congress return to power at the Centre.
A decade later Narendra Modi would power the next phase of BJP’s consolidation. It’s also worth noting that expansion in some states also followed the BJP’s national win of 2014 — notably in Uttar Pradesh that the party won in 2016, and which is today, besides Gujarat, its strongest bastion.
If the BJP strengthened its presence in many states after its emergence at the Centre (in 2014), hypothetically, the reverse can happen for the Congress where the states become the platform for a national recovery.
Minorities across India, even in Uttar Pradesh where the Congress does not have the institutional structures, see the grand old party as their first choice — where it is a viable one. Cutting across sections is a larger anti-incumbency vote against the BJP after its two terms in power at the Centre. Can the Congress organisationally rise to the occasion?
When it comes to Opposition unity, the tricky aspect to the Congress’s resurgence is that it threatens the regional parties such as the BRS and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which have grown at the Congress’s expense. Despite her misgivings, Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee has thrown her lot in with the idea of a united Opposition; and that counts as West Bengal is a large state. Even in Bihar, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, where the Congress is in working relationships with the regional parties, ticket distribution is a problem—though manageable.
Now that the chemistry appears to be clicking for the grand old party on the ground in parts of India, it is perhaps time for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to announce another Bharat Jodo Yatra, this time from the east to the west, where he should attempt to walk through some of the troubled parts of the North-East.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.