Though several other factors do indeed matter, yet growth and decline of populations and changes in the relative balance between various groups within a population play a crucial role in the rise and fall of nations and civilisations. That is why active and alert societies, especially of modern times, keep a keen eye on the changing demographic trends within themselves as well as everywhere else in the world. We are one of the fastest-growing nations in the world and are expected to surpass China soon and as early as this census.
This is a much older debate in India, too, but it came to the fore again in 2019 when Prime Minister Narender Modi mentioned it in his Independence Day speech, which triggered the next round of this debate. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological mentor of the BJP, recently again discussed the need for a population policy at its Akhil Bhartiya Karyakari Mandal. The latter is its second-highest decision-making body.
The Sangh has been raising the issue of population imbalance for long. RSS sarkaryavaha (general secretary) Dattatreya Hosabale spoke about population control and planning, emphasising that the country has limited resources. Before that, RSS sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat also talked about this issue in his annual Vijayadashami speech in 2022. The RSS has been raising this issue since 2004. In 2004, the Sangh passed a resolution in its Akhil Bhartiya Karyakari Mandal after looking at the results of the census done in 2001.
The resolution stated "that demographic changes do lead to social and political changes, is a fact universally acknowledged. Bharat, which has gone through the tragic trauma of partition in 1947 mainly due to demographic imbalances in Hindu-Muslim proportion in certain parts of the country, does not need any outside example for this. The census 2001 has only highlighted the continuity of this process." It further said, "11 states have registered a decadal growth rate of more than 30 per cent in the Christian population, while nine states have registered a decadal growth rate of more than 30 per cent in the Muslim population."
Muslim intellectuals have been in denial mode for a long period on the issue of population explosion. But lately, some voices like former chief election commissioner S Y Quraishi in his book, The Population Myth, while overlooking lots of facts, has tried to describe the Islamic view on family planning from an unorthodox perspective.
Quraishi has concluded that the problem at hand might not be viewed as a 'Hindu versus Muslim' one but one common to both communities and must be taken seriously. His appeal to Muslims to adopt family planning is a positive initiative. He has also suggested a comprehensive communication strategy to promote family planning among Muslims.
However, in an attempt to defend the indefensible, he looked at only the organic growth of the Muslims, ignoring the other ways, such as illegal immigration, infiltration and conversions. Areas bordering Bangladesh, Assam and Nepal have seen an unprecedented increase in Muslim population and questions raised by this anomaly need to be answered. A few anecdotal pieces of evidence also need to be discussed. In western UP, the Hindu population decreased by two per cent, effectively increasing the Muslim population.
The demographic ratio, without doubt, has changed, with a clear increase in the percentage of Muslims in India from 9.8 per cent in 1951 to 14.2 per cent in 2011. And there was a corresponding decrease in the Hindu population from 84 per cent to 79.8 per cent during the same period. It will be interesting to watch the latest figures.
Another interesting fact is the increase in the Christian population, Which could not be ascertained due to some peculiarities. Demographic change by way of conversion is well noticed in Arunachal Pradesh, from 18.72 per cent Christians in 2001 to 30.26 per cent in 2011. In Meghalaya, from 70.25 per cent in 2001 to 74.59 per cent in 2011. In Manipur, from 37.7 per cent in 2001 to 41.29 per cent in 2011, and in Sikkim, from 6.7 per cent in 2001 to 9.91 per cent in 2011. It will be interesting to see the demographic change in the bordering state of Punjab, where Christian conversion is said to be happening at a faster pace. Though the exact numbers can't be ascertained due to a new class called "Crypto Christians". Most of the Crypto Christians may not correctly mention their religion during enumeration.
Historically there have been reasons for planning and control of the population. In countries like China and Japan, older people have become a problem, and the governments have to take care of the elderly. Due to demographic changes, new countries have been formed from countries like Indonesia and Sudan. India has a huge younger population, which will eventually grow old, and planning has to be done to take care of them when this population grows older. Formulating a comprehensive population policy is the need of the hour, and the present government is capable of doing this.
(The writer is a columnist associated with the RSS)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.