Empty seats with MSC logos on day two of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
Credit: Bloomberg Photo
The latest Munich Security Conference was held from February 16 to 18 at the 19th-century Bayerischer Hof. The elite geopolitical conference celebrated its 60th anniversary, but far from celebratory, the mood is sombre.
Listening to various delegates, one got a sense that the world order is being upended by a variety of events that leave you worried about its future. Far from this being some esoteric fear sitting in the minds of leaders and thinkers, the impacts of the ongoing global trajectory, if not corrected, are likely to imperil the future and shared prosperity of the world.
If I sound alarmist, it is only to ask you to sit up and take notice.
The fear expressed is not unjustified what with geopolitical tensions and rising economic uncertainty forcing governments to abandon the benefits of multilateral global co-operation, and instead has them focused on who loses more — what the Munich Security Report aptly terms ‘lose-lose’ dynamics. Ostensibly, they’re doing this for the betterment of their people and irony may have died a thousand deaths in the process.
One could argue that the period following the Cold War was largely peaceful. Great power wars seemed remote, multilateralism flourished, globalisation was on the up, and if you believe the authors of the Munich Security Report, by and large democracy flourished, human rights spread, and poverty declined.
Fast forward to today, and that past seems a distant memory. Today, almost all countries seem dissatisfied with the state of the global order. The developed world worries about its reduced influence in the face of emerging powers from the Global South. The Global South, assertive as never before, doesn’t lose a chance to castigate the unequal nature of the international global order and seeks a realignment. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in a closed-door luncheon, which this author attended, asserted this in no uncertain terms, and it was clear from his address countries like India will stake their rightful claim on the world stage. Indeed, his assertions are grounded in fact what with India playing an increasingly important role in world affairs.
On the other hand, traditional custodians of the global order are no longer satisfied with the state of affairs (despite having been in the driving seat to shape them), as they see their fortunes shrinking. People in G7 countries polled for the 2024 Munich Security Index expect countries like China and India to become much more powerful while they see their own countries stagnating or declining.
The ‘lose-lose’ dynamic
The resulting ‘lose-lose’ dynamics are already unfolding in many policy areas, and engulfing various regions. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has undermined pathways to a co-operative security order for the foreseeable future. Europe finds itself in the unenviable position of neither being able to reap a peace dividend nor avoid the huge capital outlay needed for its defence, not to mention Ukraine. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, who addressed the conference on February 17, made no pretence that his country needed more aid from Europe. This, when European economies are projected to stagnate over the course of the decade.
Closer home, China’s growing militarisation of its land and maritime borders is raising fears about Beijing’s intentions and as a result, many countries in the region are seeking closer security ties with the United States, and the West is also trying to reduce its economic dependency on China. But decisively reduced co-operation with China hurts everyone. We are faced with the prospect of great power rivalry yet again.
The war in Gaza has set back the regional rapprochement that had gathered momentum and began shifting zero-sum mindsets among regional powers. Today, that orderly picture lies in tatters. Worse, if the war persists, the risk of it spreading further is a very real possibility.
In Africa, a series of coups in the Sahel has lost the Europeans and the US important partners in promoting development and democracy, and the risk of continued infighting means these populations will likely not see lasting peace in the near to mid-term. That’s a massive geography in disarray.
Moving in the opposite direction
Globalisation — or should we call it deglobalisation? — is in full play with geopolitical tensions forcing states to pursue economic security rather than maximising mutual gains. As a result, capital and trade flows are beginning to fragment along geopolitical lines. One look at investment patterns will clear up any questions that this is a figment of someone’s imagination.
Climate talks, the one area where global co-operation is an existential imperative, is now embroiled in the ongoing geopolitical tensions between low- and high-income countries, the Global South vs the Global North. Technology, another area where its benefits could be used to benefit the world, is now a bitter battle for supremacy. The semiconductor industry, for example, is caught right in the crossfire.
AI, which is unsurprisingly a huge focus at the MSC, is yet another area where the West and China seem to be fighting for supremacy. At a session on the geopolitics of supply chains, it was clear as day that the European desire to protect their supply chains against a dominant China means that increasingly protectionist policies are being instituted, thereby undermining the very concept of multilateralism.
Rather than reforming the open and rules-based international order so that it better delivers on its promised mutual benefits, the world appears to be moving in the opposite direction. The prospects for course correction seem bleak, and that should aptly sum up the sombre nature of the discussions at the MSC which may otherwise have had the champagne bubbling over.
A world caught in the whirlwind of such risks seriously imperils global security and a prosperous future. I asked the authors of the Munich Security Index whether they saw a silver lining in a report that projects a gloom and doom scenario. They answered that India stands out as a beacon of hope in these troubled times. I walked away smiling and realising the impact Indian foreign policy is having on the world stage.
Bharat Ramanan is an international affairs and political risk expert. X: @bratistotle.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)