The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as President of Turkey for a record third time comes at a time when the world order as well as the Islamic world are undergoing churn, triggered more by circumstances – especially competing nationalisms -- than a realisation amongst the major players of the need for change. The Turkey election was not really one of the prominent drivers influencing the emerging world order but was nevertheless an important event for India and the rest of the world, especially the Islamic world, to take note of.
During his tumultuous second term, Erdogan had begun to promote a rather radical variety of Islam that bordered on revivalism as against the prominent Arab version prevalent in the region. Erdogan shifted the balance between Islamic conservatism and Kemalist secularism. He began stepping on the toes of the Arabs and other votaries of amalgamating core Islamic principles in governance when he began to project himself as the leader of the Islamic world, seeking to revive memories of the Ottoman empire. But Saudi Arabia is in no mood to vacate its position of supremacy in the Islamic world.
Earlier to that, since 2003, when he first became Prime Minister, Erdogan had begun to gradually build a nationalist narrative, which in practice meant running down what he called Western influence and lifestyle. But the process was slow and not done overtly, so as to not dent the ‘European’ and secular image of the country. A weak and disunited Opposition harped on the core principles propounded by the founder of modern Turkey, Kemal Pasha, but could not match up to Erdogan’s political strategy or statecraft. The 2016 coup attempt against him came as a shock and a great and costly lesson for Erdogan. But what does not kill makes one stronger, as it has in Erdogan’s case.
Turkey, incidentally, was one of the few countries that opposed India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Under Erdogan, it has also taken a strong anti-India stand on Kashmir, especially after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Although Turkey does not benefit much by siding with Islamabad, it helps Erdogan rope in one more Islamic state for his project, although Ankara has reservations about Pakistan ceding too much economic and strategic space to China. Turkey also needs a base in Pakistan to be able to keep a watch on Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia. India, on its part, has raised concerns over human rights violations by Turkey in Greece, Cyprus and Armenia, countries with whom Turkey has territorial disputes. India also revoked a $2-billion naval deal with a Turkish defence company, besides cancelling defence exports to Ankara.
As a result of these diplomatic countermoves, Erdogan appears to have softened his stand on Kashmir and merely expressed hope that India and Pakistan would settle issues bilaterally. Erdogan appears to be aware of the need to do a course correction in Ankara’s relations with India. Turkey, facing an intense economic crisis, also wants to become a full member of SCO, of which India currently holds the presidency.
On the sidelines of the SCO summit held in Uzbekistan, on Turkey’s request, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a meeting with Erdogan, paving the way for greater interaction between the two foreign offices. The generous assistance under ‘Operation Dost’ sent by New Delhi during the devastating earthquake in Turkey has helped thaw relations further.
For Indian businesses, Turkey offers a convenient gateway to reach out to Europe and Africa. The EU Customs Union, of which Turkey is a member, makes it easier for EU companies to trade with companies from outside the EU, harmonising customs duties on goods from such countries. Considering the improvement in trade, it would be prudent for both countries to begin negotiations on institutionalising bilateral trade through a trade agreement.
There is a realisation in both capitals that the two countries will have to work together in the global arena, given their respective strategic locations, cultural affinities and historical backgrounds, notwithstanding the sporadic irritants that crop up.