As we enter a new year, let’s recognise that it’s a mistake now to think of politics as being played on a level playing field, and therefore gratuitous advice to opposition parties must be tempered with a reality check. There is now a sort of Hunger Games out there in the electoral arena; this is a reference to popular books and movies that capture a dystopian future where contenders are forced to participate in a televised fight to the death. The rules are determined by those in power in what is called the Capitol, who control all the resources in the districts that make up the domain. The Capitol finds this edgy televised saga a way to send a message to the people to behave or be punished.
We are not quite there yet, but signs of dystopia are all around us. Calculations for the future must therefore factor in the new playing rules. For one, the BJP now corners most of the political finance in the country, be it through electoral bonds or electoral trusts or other means. Second, almost all the ED and Income tax cases against politicians are active only against those in opposition parties, and they become inactive if the individual crosses over to India’s pre-eminent political party or helps bring down an opposition regime.
In other words, the pre-eminent political party of the era now cruises along in a fancy motorcade showcasing the Leader and his multiple facets/outfits, while opposition figures metaphorically have their legs broken or at least their cash raided. The umpires, referees, and third umpires are increasingly partisan or else they would not be allowed to manage the games. Indeed, when it comes to an overarching executive, the year has ended with a campaign by the Union law minister on the collegium system through which appointments are made in the Supreme Court.
In 2022 there was one breakthrough in politics that gave a glimmer of hope for Opposition moves leading up to the next national election in 2024. The changes in Bihar, where Chief minister Nitish Kumar left the NDA and forged a coalition with the RJD, opened up spaces in the Gangetic belt that had been virtually swept by the NDA in 2019 (in Bihar, the opposition won just one of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats).
Yet the BJP won Uttar Pradesh convincingly after a good performance by the opposition and ended the year winning Gujarat with a record margin and, in the interim, also scored wins in Uttarakhand and Goa. Where they could not win electorally, they scored through other means. They toppled a coalition regime in Maharashtra and engineered a split in the Shiv Sena. By means fair and foul, the BJP, therefore, keeps forging ahead. Even in defeat, such as that registered against the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi municipal corporation election, the party managed to up its vote share while it lost Himachal Pradesh by a narrow vote margin to the Congress.
In 2023, the Congress will have many direct contests against the BJP in state elections, starting in April in Karnataka, while the year will end with polls in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Psychologically, Karnataka will set the tempo for 2024. If the BJP manages to hang on to a state where it engineered defections to form a government and subsequently stirred multiple Hindutva issues, then we can assume that the formulae of might, money, media, Modi and Muslim vs Hindu narratives cannot be breached by the opposition. If, however, the Congress wins in the state where it has traditionally had a much more diverse social base, then we can forecast a contest in 2024.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra has been one of the more interesting developments of 2022-2023. Yes, it may be seen as a desperate journey for desperate times, but something along the way has clicked, both for Rahul Gandhi and for those who want constitutional issues to be highlighted. It also seems to have inspired other opposition parties to undertake yatras, and there are reports that Rahul Gandhi may also make an east-to-west journey.
Anything that looks pure and represents a return to fundamentals can be welcome in an age of multiplicity of lenses and finance through which the dominant narratives of the age are now pushed. For as the new begins, there is no getting away from the fact that the nation is headed in a direction that its founding figures would not recognise. We are getting new narratives in history, even as the mythology around the prime minister continues to be created.
In 2024, the BJP will yet again posit a presidential-style contest built around the persona of the prime minister. Simultaneously, the national party is covering other flanks, and the most political step that the Centre took as the year ended was the decision to provide free ration to 81.35 crore people under the National Food Security Act.
The only way to counter the Force is through a combination of narratives and the arithmetic of alliances in parts such as Bihar and Maharashtra, where the Congress is partnered with regional players. Even if regional parties perform in their bases such as Tamil Nadu, Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar, there is no contest in 2024 if Congress is unable to recover in some of the Lok Sabha seats where it is in a direct contest against the BJP. The arithmetic does not add up without the Congress.
In the Hunger Games books and movies, the heroes are the underdogs who defeat the Capitol. It takes toil, suffering, death and agony to achieve that. It’s a fantasy that cannot be compared to our complex political reality. But hope lives on in both reality and fantasy.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.