Saudi Arabia and Iran have decided to walk past their bitter acrimony of the past seven years, re-open embassies, and refurbish their mangled relationship.
Iraq had been labouring for a possible reconciliation between the two West Asian rivals for some time. The breakthrough, however, brokered by Beijing signifies remarkable changes in the geopolitics of the region, where the role and influence of the sole superpower in the world, the United States of America, are on an inexorable course of diminishing returns.
Israel is left to count its strategic losses.
Washington has been compelled to look at the hard to come by means to isolate an irritant Tehran, and come to terms with how the new regional power dynamics could further erode its grip over the region, where frequent tensions have inflamed wars.
Saudi Arabia had refused to join the Abraham Accords (a series of treaties normalising diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, facilitated by Washington) much to the discomfort of Israel.
If the US-Saudi Arabia ties under President Joe Biden have had its ups and downs, the souring relationship between Riyadh and Tehran was a testy affair that had led to missiles and drones flying across the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula.
At the end, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) seemed to have been unburdened by the West as the global power equations are undergoing major shifts in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As he strives to overhaul the conservative Islamic kingdom’s economy and society, transforming it into a hub for global business and culture, a détente with Shia Iran is just in order as well.
Under Biden, the US had been swinging from one end to the other regarding the relationship with Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration refrained from providing Saudi Arabia with missiles for its war in Yemen, where it is pitched against Iran, and instead engaged in negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
Above all, Biden’s relationship with MBS appeared wobbly, and the two allies seemed to have been walking in lockstep.
The conflict in Ukraine necessitated that the US needed the Gulf countries for stabilising the world energy market, and ensuring that the sanction on Russia works to the West’s advantage.
But Riyadh was not willing to waltz with Washington, and now the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two countries separated by some 150 miles of Persian Gulf waters, points to the US’ diminishing upper hand in the region.
However, the US remains the most important trade, business, and security partner for most countries in the region.
That said, normalising of Riyadh-Tehran ties could lead to more Saudi Arabian money being invested inside Iran that would further come in the way of the US-backed, Israel-driven approach of isolating Iran. Restoration of ties can have a positive impact on the nuclear deal that has been in the limbo due to hardening of the positioning from both the West and Iran.
If the ties further improve, being a major regional power, Saudi Arabia can exert a positive influence in getting Iran to the discussion table and help at arriving at a consensus.
Any new verve in bilateral ties could bring positive news to the world if Riyadh and Tehran are willing to turn a new leaf on Yemen where the two have been pitchforked into a bloody civil war that has claimed more than 3,77,000 lives in the last eight years. The war of attrition has weakened both the countries, and a possible solution might not be very far.
The détente appears to go far beyond the resumption of diplomatic ties and opening of the embassies as both countries could look at re-implementing a decades-old security co-operation pact. They could revive older arrangements that have come to a standstill after diplomatic ties were officially severed in 2016 when Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shia Saudi cleric Nimr al-Nimr, after which protesters in Tehran attacked the Saudi Arabian embassy.
“The countries of the region share one fate,” the Saudi Arabian foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, said on Twitter after the announcement. “That makes it necessary for us to work together to build models for prosperity and stability.”
Among other things, the peace proposal points to the growing influence of Beijing in ably crisscrossing the volatile political minefields. Widening its economic clout and giving no sermons about human rights, Beijing has been trying to chip away at Washington’s influence in the region. Though Beijing tasted some success, it's very far from making such success a habit.
(Jayanth Jacob, a foreign policy commentator, has covered the ministry of external affairs for more than two decades. Twitter: @jayanthjacob.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.