Endangering the shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea is a direct threat to India’s economy and national security.
Credit: DH Illustration
India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, is due to visit Tehran today, and he could probably confront Iran with evidence of its involvement in the drone attack on the commercial ship MV Chem Pluto about 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast with cargo heading to Mangaluru.
Jaishankar’s visit comes amid hightened tensions in West Asia due to the war in Gaza and increasing attacks on commercial shipping by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen’s Red Sea. These attacks are forcing shipping companies to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, raising shipping and insurance costs, and impacting supply timelines. The United States and Britain, after issuing warnings, recently struck missile and drone launch sites, radar installations, and other military targets, increasing the possibility of a wider escalation.
Jaishankar’s visit to Tehran could be for multiple reasons: to confront Iran over the attack on MV Chem Pluto and other ships in the Red Sea and Northern Arabian Sea, prevent escalation of the conflict, and discuss bilateral ties.
However, the attack on the ship near Indian shores should be a priority. Soon after the attack, the US claimed it was “a one-way attack drone fired from Iran,” which Iran denied. According to the initial investigation, the Indian Navy suspected the Iranian Shahed-136 drone to have struck the MV Chem Pluto as well. This is the drone that Iran has sold to Russia, which it has used to devastating effect against Ukraine. The launch site, possibly Chabahar, which is about 800 km away, is ironically a port of deep interest to India as a gateway to Central Asia.
In response, the Indian Navy boarded two suspect Iranian ships near
the attack area and stepped up its
patrol of the Arabian Sea, deploying as many as 10 warships, including India’s latest destroyers, frigates, P8 maritime patrol aircraft, and Sea Guardiandrones, for deterrence.
India’s defence minister pledged to hunt down the perpetrators, even if they were hiding at the bottom of the ocean, and act strictly against them. However, nothing has been said or done since then.
The issue cannot be swept under the rug, even if the perpetrator is Iran, a friendly country, as the implications for India will be immense. There will be reputational costs and a question mark on India’s ability to provide security in the region.
This was a precise, targeted attack on a ship heading to India with cargo that was attacked near Indian shores, far away from the conflict zone and the geography of the antagonists, where numerous other attacks on commercial vessels have taken place, conducted by the Iran-backed Houthis. The attack is unlikely to have been conducted by the Houthis, who are over 2500 km away. They don’t have that range of munition and also lack the capabilities for intelligence, surveillance, targeting, and reconnaissance to undertake such an attack.
If indeed Iran is responsible as suspected, the motives of the attack can be many. They chose to target a ship near India and headed with cargo to India. They knew exactly what they were doing. It’s possible that Iran wants to send a message to India and shape its policy on the ongoing war in Gaza. It can also be to try and shape India’s larger integration with the economies of the Arab states, with whom India has a $240 billion trade.
India has a free trade agreement with the UAE and is working with the Saudi government for a similar agreement and the recently announced India-Middle East Europe Corridor to increase connectivity and trade between the three regions.
Endangering the shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea is a direct threat to India’s economy and national security. About 50% of India’s trade passes through the Arabian Sea; 60% of India’s energy needs are fulfilled by the Arab states. It is estimated that just the threats to shipping in the Red Sea can hit India’s exports by $30 billion this year. India is pursuing increased investments in manufacturing with western nations that have adopted a China+1 strategy or are de-risking their economies. It cannot afford disruptions in the supply chain and the shipping of finished goods.
The attack close to India’s shores is a challenge to India and the Indian Navy. The Arabian Sea is the primary area of responsibility of the Indian Navy. The primary military objective of the Indian Navy is to deter any military adventurism against the country, including intervention in India’s affairs and subversive strategies against our national interests.
Sadly, India has, over the years, underinvested in enhancing its naval capabilities, and this can have severe consequences. Protecting the sea lanes and providing convoy protection requires a lot of ships. In 2018, the Indian Navy aimed to have a 200-warship navy by 2027. However, this was brought down to 175 by 2027, and now the timeline has been pushed to 2035.
However, the navy will have to make do with what it has and partner with friendly countries to pool its resources. Attacks at sea and maritime terrorism were cited as major non-traditional threats in the Indian Navy’s maritime security strategy. It also has to contend with grey zone warfare by State actors. It will have to aggressively patrol and board suspect ships, provide convoy support, and take out hostile crafts that endanger shipping.
It seems like India may have decided to use the diplomatic route with Iran and is unlikely to escalate the issue with Iran or its proxy, the Houthi. At the same time, the attack on Chem Pluto, close to India’s EEZ, cannot be left unanswered. India not only has to protect the critical waterways for itself but also has to assure the wider region that it is capable of providing security.
(The writer is Adjunct Scholar, strategic studies at the Takshashila Institution)