Eight months after the start of the Gaza war, Israel has still not achieved two of its major goals: the release of its hostages through military action and the removal from power of the Iran-backed Hamas.
Failure on the battlefield is now compounded by setback after setback in the international arena. The latest blow to Israel came this week when three more countries -- Ireland, Norway and Spain -- announced their recognition of a Palestinian State. Shocked Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded, “I’ve instructed the immediate recall of Israel’s ambassadors…in the light of these countries’ decisions to recognise a Palestinian State.”
These recognitions underline the failure of Israeli diplomacy, which worked overtime to block the growing worldwide support for the Palestinian cause. By contrast, it is the triumph of Palestinian diplomats who for years have worked to persuade countries to recognise a Palestinian State in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem as part of a two-state solution to the Israel-Arab conflict.
Frantic Israelis who have strongly condemned the three European countries argue that their action, even if well meant, is ill-timed and sends the wrong message to terrorists all over the world by effectively endorsing the use of violence to achieve political goals. “Reward for terrorism” is the accusation echoing in Israel.
A more sophisticated argument being put forward by some Israelis says that any two-state solution can only be achieved by negotiations and not imposed on the two warring sides.
Their reasoning is that there are several sticking points that have to be agreed in detail and in advance before the Palestinians achieve their goal. Those sticking points include the precise location of future borders, the future of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, the future status of Jerusalem, and the fate of Palestinian refugees displaced by the Israel-Arab wars of 1948 and 1967.
This week’s move by Ireland, Norway and Spain comes on the heels of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announcing that it will seek arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, along with warrants for Hamas leaders Ismail Haniye, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Def, for gross violations of human rights.
The ICC declaration has shocked Israelis, with Netanyahu characterising it as a ‘hit job’ driven by anti-Semitism. Other Israeli officials have singled out the ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan, saying his Islamic faith means he cannot be considered unbiased when it comes to the Jews. Justice Minister Yariv Levin commented how the “lowly comparison between Israel’s leaders and the mass murderers leading Hamas are a clear expression of modern anti-Semitism and hatred of Jews wherever they may be.”
Even more outrageous, where the Israelis are concerned, is how the ICC appears to equate their leaders with the heads of what they call the Hamas terrorist organisation. “An institution (the ICC) that is incapable of differentiating between the aggressor and the defender, between a democracy…and a terror organisation.. is a danger to humanity”, said Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. Similar sentiments have been expressed by leaders of Israel’s closest Western friends, such as US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Despite such US and British backing, Israelis feel beleaguered and isolated in an increasingly hostile world that is outraged by the endless Gaza war and the high rate of Palestinian casualties. Israel’s latest fear is that the ICC declaration bolsters international critics, especially on college campuses throughout the US, Canada and Europe.
Numerous Western campuses continue to witness unprecedented protests, with both students and faculty members denouncing what they call Israel’s ‘war crimes’ against the people of Gaza. Israelis see characterise these protests as anti-Semitic, though the truth is that some of the protests are organised and led by Jews opposed to Israel’s policies and military actions.
Both the ICC declaration and the three nations’ recognition of Palestine follow an unprecedented diplomatic crisis with the US administration of President Joe Biden, which is increasingly critical of Israel’s military strategy in Gaza, especially its push into Rafah in southern Gaza.
The Israelis claim Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas and an invasion will facilitate their aim of ending Hamas rule in Gaza forever. While the US shares Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas, Washington argues that far too many Palestinian civilians have been killed so far and there is an urgent need to prevent further casualties. Washington’s concerns have been underlined by Biden’s recent decision to withhold arms shipments to Israel.
Still worse for Israel is the dramatic deterioration of bilateral relations with Egypt, the first-ever Arab country to sign a peace treaty with the Jewish State. Israeli military operations along the Egypt border have sent alarm bells ringing in Cairo. Egyptian government officials have attacked Israel for aggravating the human rights crisis in Gaza. Hence the speculation that Egypt is considering downgrading its diplomatic ties with Jerusalem.
In off-the-record briefings, Israeli officials describe their Egyptian counterparts as ‘hypocrites’ who are desperate to hide the Hamas-built tunnels that stretch across international borders into Egypt. If the Israelis are to be believed, Egypt has turned a blind eye to some of these tunnels that are allegedly wide enough to accommodate lorries carrying shipments of arms from Egypt into Gaza.
Seasoned Israeli analysts say they cannot remember another time that the country was so isolated, despised and cast as a pariah State. Their greatest fear is that Jerusalem is in danger of losing any remaining support within the US and Britain as the Gaza war rages on. Even if Israel defeats Hamas, a seemingly impossible task given the limited successes of the Israeli army, far more important for them is regaining international respectability and removing the stain of behaving like ‘war criminals’.
In Jerusalem, the ICC declaration is seen as a potential Pandora’s Box that could unleash similar indictments of Jewish leaders at other international forums.
Still to be discussed, meanwhile, is the low-intensity conflict that has been underway between Israel and another Iran proxy in the shape of Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Daily rockets from within Lebanon have forced tens of thousands of Israeli civilians to flee their homes in the north of their country and seek refuge wherever possible. Israelis say an all-out war with Hezbollah is not a matter of if, but when. This next conflict is simply a matter of timing, because Israeli refugees will only return to their homes when Hezbollah has been neutralised.
Any new and forthcoming conflict will inevitably be waged within Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based, leading to the destruction of Arab roads, bridges, homes and offices. Ordinary Israelis say their own homes have been attacked and they have no choice but to continue a seemingly endless war. A new political leadership in Israel may be the only way ahead for a country that recently celebrated 76 years of independence.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in London)