Credit: DH Illustration/Deepak Harichandan
After a constitution bench, headed by Chief Justice of India D Y Chandrachud, unanimously upheld the BJP government’s August 2019 decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution, as expected, there was a muted reaction in Kashmir. As the apex court verdict gave legitimacy to the 2019 decision, two prominent political entities in the region—the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—found themselves at the centre of a complex and rapidly evolving political landscape.
The controversial 2019 decision to revoke the special status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was accompanied by a massive deployment of security forces, a communication blackout, and the detainment of political leaders. The move at that time sparked little or no protests within the region, though it drew varied responses globally, with some nations expressing concerns about the potential impact on regional stability.
In the current situation, a section of Kashmir’s population sustains a sense of hurt, outrage, and defeat. But a sizeable section appears to have accepted that with the abrogation in August 2019 and the SC verdict on December 11, 2023, New Delhi has permanently shut the door for everything from “greater autonomy” to “self-rule” and “azadi”. They realise that there’s no way, no route, and no promise of a struggle to get anything back. They have accepted that no amount of protests or violence will alter this reality, and they have moved on, reconciling with the new circumstances.
One of the main reasons for people in Kashmir to accept the new reality without any resistance in 2019 was the “aggressive posture of the authorities towards any form of protest or dissent,” though the momentous decision stirred intense debate and reactions both nationally and internationally.
After August 2019, it became an uphill task for the NC and the PDP to remain relevant in the changing political landscape. The Parliament’s decision was challenged before the apex court, and for the last four years, the two dynastic political parties tried to hide behind the notion that “the Supreme Court will deliver justice.” However, the majority of Kashmiris knew that it was more a political gimmick to remain relevant than reality.
Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, both former chief ministers of the erstwhile state, whose politics not long ago revolved around “complete autonomy” (pre-1953 position) and “self-rule,” respectively, changed the goalposts after the SC verdict by pledging to “continue with their political struggle” to restore the pre-August 5, 2019 position. However, neither of the two leaders explained what forums or what route they would pursue to restore that position.
Nevertheless, whatever decisions the BJP government took in its second term on Kashmir have been a win-win situation for the saffron party. Not only have they relegated separatists, who used to demand ‘azadi’ or merger with Pakistan, to oblivion, but mainstream politicians like Omar and Mehbooba have no choice but to recalibrate their political strategies. The BJP government has been successful in changing the dominant narrative of “azadi, autonomy, and self-rule” to the holding of assembly elections and the restoration of statehood.
While delivering the verdict on Article 370, the apex court also directed the Election Commission (EC) to conduct assembly polls in J&K by September 30, 2024, besides asking the Union government to expedite the process of restoration of statehood for J&K. Whether the Centre and the EC will hold the much-awaited assembly elections, which have been put on the back burner since 2018, and allow the people of J&K to exercise their democratic rights, remains in the realm of speculation.
However, if the last five years are any indication, there are fewer chances of assembly polls happening in 2024. After the fall of the last elected government in June 2018, it was expected that assembly polls in the erstwhile state would be held in April–May 2019 along with the Parliament elections. However, the EC cited the constraints over the availability of central forces and other logistics as an excuse.
From March 2020 on, delimitation of constituencies took centre-stage in J&K’s frozen politics, as both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated that redrawing of assembly and parliament seats in accordance with the J&K Reorganisation Act-2019 was a prerequisite for holding assembly polls.
After several delays, the Delimitation Commission filed its final report in May 2022, and since then, the special summary revision of electoral rolls, a mandatory process before election dates are announced, has been completed twice. However, the Centre kept on delaying Assembly polls on one or another pretext.
Uncertainty of polls
So what are the chances of assembly elections before September 2024? The EC can take a 2019 plea this time also not to hold both the polls simultaneously. In June, July, and August 2024, a large number of security forces personnel will be deployed to ensure an incident-free annual Amarnath Yatra, leaving no space for polls.
The NC and the PDP are not revealing their poll strategies yet, but their previous election manifestos had been politically radical, and Article 370 figured prominently in them. Though the saffron party wants to come to power in the country’s only Muslim-majority region on its own, ideally with a Hindu chief minister, they know it is easier said than done. Despite six additional seats to Jammu, a BJP stronghold in the controversial delimitation exercise, and only one to Muslim majority Kashmir, the electoral arithmetic is still not in favour of the saffron party.
While the changes effected by the delimitation and assembly reservation might help the BJP cross the mark of 25 seats it had won in 2014, even its most fervent supporters know that the party can’t come close to the magic number of 46 required to form the government in the new, 90-member assembly.
A non-BJP government after assembly elections would have the potential for regular confrontation between Srinagar and New Delhi. A longer central rule would be preferred by the BJP rather than risking a government led by the NC and PDP, which is hostile to its agenda. In his recent speech in Parliament, Amit Shah said a plan to have zero terror incidents in J&K has been in force for the last three years and will be successful by 2026.
It indicates that if the BJP returns to power after Lok Sabha polls, they would like to defer Assembly polls in J&K for as long as possible. And ‘security situation’ can be used as an excuse before the apex court to defer the polls beyond September 2024.
Restoration of statehood?
During his recent speech in Rajya Sabha, the home minister assured the country that “new and developed Kashmir” will be free from terrorism and full statehood will be restored to the erstwhile state at an “appropriate time.”
Even Solicitor General Tushar Mehta assured the SC in August this year that the Union Territory status of J&K was only a “temporary phenomenon.” This has been the policy of the Centre right from the day J&K was bifurcated into two UTs in August 2019. In his speech in Parliament in August 2019, Amit Shah used the term “appropriate time” without giving any time frame.
If the statement of the Solicitor General in the SC is any indication, like assembly polls, restoration of statehood too is not in the immediate priorities of the Centre. J&K is a border region surrounded by two nuclear-armed adversaries: Pakistan and China. New Delhi is aware of the dangers it faces on its frontiers from Pakistan and China and not only wants to control the insurgency but also wipe it out.
Restoration of statehood and an elected government may become impediments to its iron fist policy in J&K. To counter it, the Centre would delay both assembly elections and the restoration of statehood for as long as possible.
Prevailing security situation
In the tumultuous aftermath of political instability and the economic crisis in Pakistan, the neighbouring country’s focus in recent years has shifted away from external conflicts. As Pakistan grapples with internal challenges, its ability to sustain support for militant groups operating in the region diminishes, leading to a decline in violence in Kashmir.
The economic downturn compelled Pakistan to prioritise domestic concerns, diverting attention and resources from fostering unrest in Kashmir. The decline in cross-border infiltration and funding for separatist elements, the Supreme Court judgement upholding the abrogation, along with India’s new terrorism play book and Pakistan’s weaknesses, improve the prospects of peace and prosperity in J&K.
But fragile peace has only served as a temporary reprieve and shouldn’t be mistaken for a permanent resolution of the problem. The absence of clear direction can fuel frustration and disillusionment among the people, which extremist elements can exploit.
Following the Supreme Court’s verdict, the road ahead is marked by a delicate balance between addressing regional aspirations and maintaining national integrity. As new governance structures have taken shape, there should be concerted efforts to foster dialogue and inclusivity and build trust among diverse communities in the region.
It is imperative for the Centre to give assurances to locals in Kashmir that Article 370 wasn’t revoked for demographic changes, as is being projected by a section of people within and outside Kashmir. Economically, the abrogation of Article 370 has opened up new avenues for investment and development. On paper, the region has witnessed an influx of outside investment, but it is to be seen when it is translated on the ground. Unemployment, like in other parts of the country, is a burning issue in Kashmir. If the integration with the broader Indian economy brings prosperity and uplifts the standard of living for the people in Kashmir a decade down the road, nobody may talk about Article 370. For now, there will be peace and calm.
But while challenges persist, the hope for a stable and prosperous future in Kashmir remains a driving force for the local population. Beautiful and fragile J&K has better prospects of peace and prosperity with the restoration of statehood, competitive politics, and constitutional guarantees on jobs and land rights for locals.