AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
Credit: PTI File Photo
Former Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal claims that he has resigned to undergo an agni-pariksha (trial by fire) and that he would not occupy that office till the people of Delhi “give their verdict”. His resignation, however, was not a “sacrifice” he chose but it was a compulsion.
The next Delhi assembly elections are due in barely four months. The last election was held on February 8, 2020, and the notification came out on January 14. If his party is to retain power, Kejriwal must resuscitate the morale of his party’s supporters as well as announce some new freebies. These twin objectives might become possible with his resignation.
According to media reports, the internal surveys by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) show that it has lost considerable ground since the 2020 assembly election, especially over the last few months. Moreover, India’s conservative voters have little or no sympathy for those seeking liquor vending licences and see the process of approval as inevitably murky.
His resignation would have had a much greater impact had Kejriwal resigned when he was first arrested in the liquor licensing case. Claiming the moral high ground after having already been out on bail twice will have much less credibility.
Kejriwal’s resignation now has been impelled by his bail conditions that prevent him from entering the office of the Delhi Chief Minister and the Delhi Secretariat, and from signing official files. He will not be able to announce new welfare programmes or freebies for Delhi before the upcoming elections.
If AAP wanted to announce schemes similar to those it implemented in Punjab, giving say, Rs 1,100 per month to all women in Delhi; creating institutions to provide food, shelter, and medical facilities for the destitute and widows, or writing off the loans of small farmers and self-employed autorickshaw drivers; Kejriwal would need to hold a Cabinet meeting to take these decisions. If new freebies could be added to the ongoing free water and electricity quotas, that would potentially better the party’s chances in the coming assembly polls.
Without a Cabinet meeting held by a fully functional chief minister, Kejriwal could not even have recommended the immediate dissolution of the Delhi assembly, had he wanted to. AAP, therefore, needed an operative chief minister not hobbled by any legal conditions to prepare the ground for the elections — someone, moreover, who would also be loyal to Kejriwal.
Recent examples of a temporary transfer of power are — the Rabri Devi model used by Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal; the Jitan Ram Manjhi model used by Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United), and the Champai Soren model used by Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
The Rabri Devi model is less risky as political power remains within the family. It was widely expected that Kejriwal was preparing to anoint his wife Sunita Kejriwal in his place. She would have kept his political aura intact keeping the focus on her husband. However, that would have made him an easy target of attack by his political opponents, and given another plank to the Opposition.
Atishi has the advantage not only of enjoying Kejriwal’s trust, but her education gives her an urbane presence. Meanwhile, her considerable experience of having worked with the poor and marginalised in the villages of Madhya Pradesh even before she joined full-time politics might make her less intimidating to the plebeian voter.
In the few months left before the Delhi elections are declared, she can announce populist programmes, and freebies. The time available to implement, and showcase such measures in a credible way may, however, be foreshortened by the Election Commission of India announcing the elections ahead of schedule.
Atishi's nomination as AAP’s new chief minister in Delhi also means that she will be a strong contender for the job if AAP wins a majority in the assembly elections. Unless the charges against him are dropped, or the bail conditions are dropped, the probability of Kejriwal becoming the next chief minister of Delhi seems distant even if his party gets a majority. Although there is no constitutional basis for this, the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi can refuse to invite Kejriwal to form the government citing the charges pending against him.
The vindication by a ‘people’s court’ is just political rhetoric. Kejriwal will have to be found innocent by the judiciary. The people of Delhi should give their verdict on the performance of the AAP government in the last five years, not on the alleged involvement of its leaders in the ‘liquor scam’.
Meanwhile, what of Atishi when the time comes to surrender her seat to Kejriwal? Manjhi and Champai Soren reneged on the understanding that they were only keeping the chief ministerial seat warm for their respective patrons. Manjhi left to form his own party and Champai Soren will politically counter his former boss Hemant Soren from the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Atishi has said that her only goal is “to make Arvind Kejriwal chief minister again”. She has declared that “Delhi has only one chief minister, and his name is Arvind Kejriwal”. Yet she may have to act independently at times. The more autonomous her decision-making becomes, even if it is only to further public welfare, the chances of her being seen as an irritant and challenger by her mentor may increase.
(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.