Haryana is intertwined with every Maratha or Marathi-speaking person by history: a tragic defeat which is etched on their hearts and the only word they dread is ‘Panipat’ after the third battle there with Afghan ruler Ahmed Shah Abdali way back in 1761. The textile town in Haryana is etched on the psyche of Maharashtra so much so that the word Panipat in Marathi is associated with ‘humiliating defeat’.
Cut to the present and the Congress, which was tipped to win the Haryana Assembly polls, has been handed a shocking defeat.
The grand old party and its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies must take this defeat as an opportunity to put its house in order, and stage a fierce fightback against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Maha Yuti government.
If the politics that have unfolded in the state over the past five years are anything to go by, the upcoming Assembly polls are likely to be the bitterest battle Maharashtra has seen.
The BJP’s allies in the Maha Yuti, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), would have mixed feelings as the dominant partner in the ally (the BJP) could get more assertive and seat distribution within the alliance could be the BJP’s favour. The unease in the ruling alliance is visible. Ajit Pawar faces an existential crisis with the picture not clear how much the BJP will accommodate his faction.
The national party has always been the big boss in the Maha Yuti, but, for its benefit, it had given much leeway to the allies as a part of its larger design to have greater control in the long run. Shinde could not have become chief minister but for the BJP, so was the case with Ajit Pawar as his deputy. The idea was to cut the rivals to size and if possible crush them.
The setback for the Congress in Haryana has prompted the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray to revive his demand that the MVA declare a chief ministerial candidate. The Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP are not in favour of it.
While the BJP may for now have the upper hand, it’s not smooth sailing for the saffron party. Its moves to engineer splits within the Shiv Sena and the NCP have not gone down well in the state, and Devendra Fadnavis, the deputy chief minister, is not seen as a popular leader.
The bane for the Congress is that despite being rudderless and leaderless in the state, several of its leaders want to become the chief minister. The high command has neglected the state after it lost power there in 2014. That said, a redeeming feature for the Opposition is that octogenarian Sharad Pawar is doing the heavy lifting when it comes to attacking the Maha Yuti. He has succeeded in bringing to his fold several sitting or former MLAs of the BJP as well as from Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP. The Congress's debacle in Haryana will further strengthen Sharad Pawar’s leadership of the MVA, thus making it a more cohesive unit and a fighting force.
The Lok Sabha polls witnessed the BJP and its allies facing severe reverses as the MVA dealt them a huge blow by securing 31 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra, shattering Modi’s dream to secure a majority for the third time in a row.
Thus, Maharashtra is vital for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to send the message that what happened in the Lok Sabha polls was just an aberration, and that the prime minister is still in full control. Rahul Gandhi, whose leadership has been dented in Haryana, has no way but to perform creditably to capture Mumbai.
Both sides will need to sweat it out to win this polls, especially given the many challenges the state is facing; this includes the demand for Maratha reservation, the agrarian distress, and joblessness in urban areas. The Ladki Bahin Yojana is a huge hit, and the MVA has been forced to acknowledge it.
The Haryana results will not only make the MVA realistic but will also help it rework its narrative, redo its poll strategy, balance castes in the selection of candidates, and build a campaign that can catch ordinary citizens’ attention.
Things will settle for the MVA only if it sees the Congress defeat in Haryana as a blessing.
(Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are senior journalists.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.