The latest happenings in international politics may seem esoteric, like the secret ceremonies of Knights Templar of the medieval order. But they are anything but abstruse. Except for a clutch of motivated lobbyists in India wedded to Western narratives, it has dawned on most rational minds that the conflict in Ukraine is not intrinsic but symptomatic of an epochal struggle consequential to the making of the world order.
Recourse to historical analogies is futile and can result in unpreparedness for contemporary events. New Delhi is probably right in assuming that another world war is unlikely. But one or two caveats are worth making.
On March 20, British Defence Minister Annabel Goldie stated in the House of Lords that her government would provide Ukraine with shells containing depleted uranium. Indeed, there is a tragic precedent — NATO’s use of depleted uranium shells while carpet-bombing Serbia during Yugoslavia’s dismemberment. (Today, the highest incidence of cancer in entire Europe occurs in Serbia.)
Britain, chafing under its free fall as a world-class power, is overzealous about power projection, and, fortuitously, Washington also desperately requires a ‘game changer’ to stave off defeat in Ukraine. But madness has limits. If the Anglo-Saxon bravado translates into action, there is bound to be a fearsome Russian reaction.
Suffice to say, we are tiptoeing toward use of tactical nuclear weapons in modern warfare, with all its horrific implications for South Asia. India must voice concern over the Anglo-Saxon move.
Again, on March 14, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia (AUKUS) unveiled the details of their plan to create a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. AUKUS is undermining nuclear non-proliferation efforts. Alongside, AUKUS is also preparing for a military showdown with China.
Furthermore, Japan continues to ratchet up its hostile power projection vis-a-vis Russia and China, while simultaneously returning to the path of militarisation which it abandoned after World War II. Whether New Delhi voiced its concerns to the Australian and Japanese Prime Ministers visiting India recently we do not know.
There is another side to this, too. For, AUKUS is coercing the IAEA Secretariat into endorsement on the relevant safeguards issues. This is yet another instance of the Western powers systematically dismantling the United Nations system to serve their geopolitical interests. How can India, which aspires to be a UN Security Council permanent member, overlook what is unfolding?
Plainly put, the US is replacing the UN with NATO as a global security organisation, anticipating that its capacity to dominate the world body is fast diminishing. NATO’s arrival in Asia is already foretold. Ironically, India’s QUAD partners are the most ardent proponents of this enterprise.
Japan has invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the forthcoming G7 Summit where NATO's Asian drama will be in focus. There was a time when India had a voice and the presence of mind to articulate on such profound shifts in geopolitics, but it increasingly behaves like lotus-eaters typically in a world of myopia. Is India’s silence its most powerful scream to let its presence be known?
Two other major developments last fortnight — the reinvigoration of the “no limits” strategic partnership between Russia and China, and the China-brokered Saudi Arabia-Iran normalisation pact — are of a different genre, but signify the shape of things to come in India’s external security environment.
One lifts the veil on the military-political confrontation between Russia and the West which is going to shape international politics in the 21st century, while the second development in India’s extended neighbourhood carries a sense of immediacy as the harbinger of international politics being shaped by the many states that do not seek to align themselves with the banners of the opposing sides. Here lies the germane seed of the new world order for countries such as India.
Unlike in the bipolar world during the Cold War, the behaviour of the majority is the most important factor that will determine the structure of the future international order. At the moment, the majority of countries, including India, are seeking short-term gains. But this is a transitional stage.
For India’s bipartisan ruling elite weaned on ‘Washington consensus’, challenging times lie ahead. The US and its allies face dwindling resources to preserve their World War II privileges, which will make them increasingly desperate. What if, in rage, they grab the vast resources of weaker opponents — such as Iran? Fundamentally, the West’s calculus is to defeat Russia and China, and regain control of everyone else.
(MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.