After nearly 10 years of rule, the Narendra Modi government’s credibility is on the decline, and the Opposition has smelled blood. It is against this background that the meeting of 18 Opposition parties is taking place on June 23.
The unity and integrity of India has been left weakened because of socially divisive policies and erosion of democratic freedoms. The intensified alienation of Kashmir, the slicing away of part of Eastern Ladakh by China, uncontrollable civil violence in Manipur, and the clumsy handling of molestation charges by female wrestlers against the former chairman of the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI), and a BJP MP, are indicative of this.
Precipitating these various discontents into a moment of political challenge were the results of the Karnataka assembly election. They affirmed, what the election of West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab hinted at — that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not invincible. The defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Karnataka has drawn even those so far opposed to Opposition unity (like Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal), indifferent (like Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav) or desirous of going their own way (like Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee).
Kejriwal has perhaps realised that the Congress has been catapulted to a potentially pole position within the Opposition, and it may no longer be possible for him to grow in the key north Indian states at its expense. Adding to this was the way the Centre sidestepped a ruling of the Supreme Court in his favour by passing an ordinance that took away his government’s powers to appoint and transfer officers. Kejriwal realises that he needs to find a foothold for AAP in the oppositional space taking shape.
Similarly, Banerjee has had to give up on her dream of a federal front, and in a U-turn announce that the TMC will support the Congress where it is strong for the 2024 general elections — if it supports regional parties where they are strong. This makes it clear that she will not play spoiler as in Goa and Tripura earlier.
Yadav too has rowed back in a bid to synch his politics with Opposition unity. He has now called for a “shared consciousness” against exploitation of the backward and the marginalised to counter the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with an alliance of ‘PDA’ (‘Pichade’ or backward classes, Dalits, and ‘Alpasankhyak’ or minorities). In a Hindi tweet he exhorted “everyone should rise above party politics and join it.”
The Patna meeting by all accounts will be an exploratory one. Even if unstated, the choice of the venue signifies that efforts to make the Congress accept a non-Congress leadership for the Opposition are still strong. Unconfirmed reports quote Janata Dal (United) sources that their leader Nitish Kumar is likely to be appointed convenor of the united Opposition front. Such jostling for position even before any unity talks have taken place is premature.
The Patna meeting will be productive only if it recognises that the Opposition needs a two-pronged strategy to provide a successful challenge to the BJP: programmatic unity at the national level, and electoral understanding at the state level. In the present exploratory stage, the Opposition can only come to a broad agreement about a shared vision that challenges the perspective of the BJP.
The message from Delhi, West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Karnataka is that ‘Ease of Living’ welfare measures are necessary to win the support of the voters. Such welfare measures go counter to the neoliberal economic perspective that most parties, except the Left, have tacitly adopted. Clearly, the electorate seems to be pushing the parties away from the market cruelty embedded in neoliberalism. Nor are new voters attracted to the BJP because of its communal rhetoric.
To win over the voters, this means not only prioritising anti-communal polarisation, but also unemployment benefits for youth, old age pensions, welfare measures for women, restoration of the old pension scheme for government employees, subsidising cooking gas, education, and health services. However, the welfare policies will have to be grounded in a comprehensive economic framework without making states financially bankrupt, and gasping for growth.
While they may be united on a secular platform, neither the Congress nor any other opposition party has yet broken away or shown any desire to counter neoliberal policies. The Congress seems unwilling to apply the brakes on the policies set in motion by the Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh duo in 1991. The suggestion that Pawar, well-known as a corporate-friendly leader, should head the panel for drafting the Opposition’s Common Minimum Programme (CMP) also does not inspire confidence for change.
The Congress hopes to counter its 10-year anti-incumbency in Rajasthan with state largesse being distributed to the voters as a short-term election winning measure. However, all such tactics will eventually have to be integrated into long-term economically sustainable programmes. Therefore, governance with a human face ought to be the core of the Opposition’s vision. Leadership questions must necessarily come later.
An Opposition leader recently told the media, “Common messaging will be the primary goal of the Opposition unity.” That message must be a new vision of an inclusive, secular, and caring India.
Simultaneously, the shared vision will have to be accompanied by electoral understandings to defeat the BJP in the states. Opposition unity will need to percolate to the cadre of the individual parties while also protecting their political ambitions. The meeting of the top leaders of the parties will have little impact unless such gatherings are bolstered by similar and frequent meetings of their state units to discuss how to counter the BJP. Putting up a common candidate against the BJP in every Lok Sabha seat is possible only in a few states and new strategies of co-operation are needed in others.
The Patna conclave of the Opposition must not, however, be front-loaded with huge and unrealistic expectations. It must set out a common long-term vision to set a new and credible narrative.
(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.