Ever since the unlikely trio of the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), along with the Shiv Sena, formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and assumed power in Maharashtra in 2019, there is speculation whether it will last its five-year term. Amid this uncertainty, Sena's three-time MLA Pratap Sarnaik's letter to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is an unwelcome reality check for the party.
While Sarnaik has couched his two-page letter of June 9 in fulsome praise for Thackeray's sterling leadership qualities, he has sneaked in many grouses. He has said the Congress and NCP MLAs get their work done quickly, but the Sena MLAs get short shrift despite having a chief minister from the party. Since November 2020, Sarnaik is under investigation by the Enforcement Directorate in a Rs 175 crore money laundering scam. In the letter, he says there is talk that the Sena got the chief minister's post because of the Congress and the NCP. However, now the Congress wants to go alone in the forthcoming municipal elections to Mumbai, Thane and other cities. He blamed the Congress-NCP for undermining the Sena. He said, under the circumstances, it is better to work things out with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This way, at least the harassment meted out to Sarnaik, Sena transport minister Anil Parab and MLA Ravindra Waikar will end, which many Sena workers believe, Sarnaik pleaded.
In addition to Sarnaik, other Sena leaders have faced a slew of accusations. For example, former BJP MP Kirti Somaiya has accused Waikar and Thackeray of buying property by "misusing their position". Waikar filed a Rs 100 crore defamation suit in April against Somaiya. Parab was accused of extortion by now dismissed policeman Sachin Waze and by Somaiya over a hotel he allegedly built in Dapoli, violating environmental norms and forging documents to legalize that construction. Allegations of extortion and corruption have already claimed two ministers in the MVA - Sanjay Rathod quit over actor Pooja Chavan's death and Anil Deshmukh, who was home minister.
The police department is in disarray over the role of former Mumbai commissioner Parambir Singh, Sachin Waze and other police officers in the Antilla case. While not all of this reeks of rivalry and power games, certainly the MVA seems to be fending off attempts to dislodge it from power.
Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown, and Thackeray, who steered Maharashtra through the worst Covid crisis in the country, needs to pay more attention to his party. Over the years, dissenting Shiv Sainiks have had to leave - notably Chhagan Bhujbal and Narayan Rane. There have always been power struggles in this party. The MVA needs to contend with all of this as also the attempts to discredit this government.
The NCP and the Sena go a long way back, and there is speculation that they may contest future elections in tandem. That is why, perhaps, the
new Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole felt he had to say that the party will contest alone in the next Assembly elections, a decision evidently not endorsed by the high command. But the Congress, which has its internal leadership issues, does seem the odd person out in this opportunistic menage a trois! The NCP has not favoured 'going solo'. On the party foundation day on June 10, party chief Sharad Pawar placed his trust in the Sena. He reportedly said that the three parties would do well together in the next state and general elections.
Politicians often say and do things that can have little rationale but not Pawar. He has the reputation of playing the game with a seasoned eye
on the future. The Third Front has been Pawar's pet project, and it perhaps has something to do with his attending Tuesday's (June 22) meeting involving various leaders from political parties, called by the Rashtra Manch. There is a buzz over his meeting political strategist Prashant
Kishore twice recently, but Kishore has since dispelled the assumption that a third front can tackle the current dispensation.
However, for the Sena, at the moment, it is not the Assembly or Lok Sabha polls that are of concern. The major challenge for the party is retaining power in the Brihanmumbai municipal corporation (BMC), which it has controlled since 1985. It scraped past the BJP precariously in the last elections in 2017 with 84 seats. The elections to the BMC are due next year and this time, the fact that the BJP is not its ally, has complicated matters. The Sena may not be able to win the municipal corporation on its strength. That could also be why Thackeray played it safe at the June 19 meeting of his party's foundation day. He dismissed talk of going solo in future elections and focused on regional pride. He spoke of the TMC win in West Bengal and working for the poor, and using power to work for the people.
More than 15 municipal corporations (including Mumbai, Navi Mumbai and Thane), 29 of 36 district councils and over 90 municipal councils will
go to polls in Maharashtra over the next 20 months. The Sena is aware of the need to keep Mumbai, its primary constituency happy, and it has
been focusing on protecting the Aarey Colony, and creating a reservation for the forest area, speeding up the metro and other projects. Also, there
could be more than state finances and cyclone assistance to meeting Modi recently in New Delhi, even if the Sena said it had always given
importance to personal relations above politics.
The BJP threw the gauntlet in November 2020 when former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis said the party would end the Sena's long innings at the BMC. In 2017, the BJP won a record 82 seats (from a mere 30 in 2012) in the 227-member BMC house. There was a tussle over the mayor's post, which finally went to the Sena. The Congress had won 31 seats and the NCP 9. So, the Congress and the NCP are not at an advantage in the city of Mumbai, and the big fight will be between the two Hindutva parties and their allies.
Preparing for battle will require Thackeray to pay close attention to the ground realities of a municipal election not only in Mumbai but elsewhere, and it is within his party that perhaps he will face the most dissension and issues, as is evident from Sarnaik's letter. The game's afoot!
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(Meena Menon is an independent journalist and author, and currently a post-graduate researcher, School of History, University of Leeds, UK)