On the face of it, the March 23 order by the Surat District Court sentencing Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to two years of imprisonment in a criminal defamation case has come as a body blow to the Congress. This is particularly so because it comes at a time when the grand old party is appearing to gain momentum in its offensive against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
But the development could also be a blessing in disguise for the party, and the Opposition — and by extension, disadvantageous for the BJP.
Too close to the bone
With this disqualification, Gandhi enters the august company of RJD leader Lalu Prasad, SP leader Azam Khan, among others — however, his offense cannot be compared to the other luminaries. A comment made at a political rally, which had a clear context to it, has been found defamatory by the court. That speeches made during a political rally, and in the heat of election campaigns, can lead to disqualification from office and even a jail term, will not sit well with a vast majority of our political leaders. This judgment has set the cat among the pigeons.
With a series of assembly elections in the months ahead and the Lok Sabha polls in 2024, expect politicians to think twice before making mindless statements. In an unintended manner this is oddly comforting as the vitriolic spewing of communal venom, and misogynistic ‘jokes’ and ‘jibes’ might just reduce in fear of judicial action.
A shot in the arm
The disqualification and possible jail term could be a shot in the arm for Gandhi’s political career — if (and that’s a big IF) the Congress can turn this development to its advantage. If the grand old party can turn the narrative and project this as the BJP’s political highhandedness (without attributing a motive or questioning the court’s judgment) the harsh light of public anger could fall on the ruling party. If the BJP were to celebrate Gandhi’s disqualification, it would add credence to such a narrative among the aam aadmi.
In case of the current sentence is reduced to less than two years (which will not disqualify him from holding public office for six more years) and if he spends time in jail, the BJP would have unwittingly played a pivotal role in Gandhi’s popularity soaring.
Opposition unity
Opposition unity has been a non-starter mainly because there has not been a consensus in defining Congress’ role in it, especially whether Gandhi would lead it. Now, if Gandhi is disqualified, expect non-NDA, non-UPA parties such as the Trinamool Congress, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, the Aam Aadmi Party, to be more conducive to talks.
Another factor which will pull opposition parties closer together is the likelihood that they could be the next IN the firing line. Delhi Chief Minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal’s statement that a “conspiracy is being hatched” against non-BJP leaders must be seen in this context.
Gandhi’s disqualification on a complaint by a BJP functionary adds weight to the perception that the ruling BJP is hell bent on silencing Opposition leaders, be it AAP’s Manish Sisodia, BRS’ K Kavitha or Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut.
In hindsight, does Gandhi regret tearing the UPA ordinance during his infamous press conference in 2013? One is not sure; but what is clear is that his actions on that September afternoon ridiculed the Congress-led Manmohan Singh government, added to the perception of him as an unpredictable and immature politician (which the BJP later cashed in), and perhaps has denied him a lifeline almost 10 years later. That's as maybe, but it is not too late to scrap a draconian, colonial law criminalising defamation.