Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Credit: Reuters Photo
By Karishma Vaswani
Thailand is facing yet another Groundhog Day. A prime minister was chosen by an elected parliament, only to be removed by a military coup or, as we saw last week, the Constitutional Court. It’s damaging for the country’s international reputation and hurts the prospects of a financial recovery for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
This game of musical chairs is a stark reminder to Thais that their votes don’t count, and that the kingdom’s politics are still controlled by vested interests who want to keep the status quo in place.
The first blow came when the court ordered the dissolution of the largest and most popular opposition group, the Move Forward Party, and banned its charismatic prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat from political activities or running for public office for 10 years. The offense? Championing reforms to the lèse-majesté law that makes it a crime to defame, insult or threaten the king or close family members.
Human Rights Watch called the move “a severe blow to Thailand’s teetering efforts to restore democratic rule after years of military dictatorship.” The US State Department echoed those concerns, saying the decision disenfranchised the more than 14 million Thais who voted for the Move Forward Party in the May 2023 election.
This was swiftly followed by the removal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from the Pheu Thai Party, after the court found him guilty of an ethics violation. He was replaced with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of a man Thais are very familiar with — former leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was in court himself Monday, facing an investigation into whether he had insulted the monarchy under the lèse-majesté law. The former premier has denied the charges. This, after he received a royal amnesty that ended his commuted one-year sentence in separate corruption cases.
Anyone speaking out against the establishment is a target, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University, told me. The prominent academic has been living outside Thailand since 2003, but if he were to go back, he would be considered a political prisoner. Authorities canceled his passport in 2014, issuing an arrest warrant for him after he declined to return to Bangkok for “attitude adjustment.”
The public space for discussions on democracy is shrinking, he notes, because it no longer consists of representative politics. “When you have an election,” Pavin said, “but the election doesn’t answer the call of the voters, and you can’t discuss sensitive issues in parliament, you can no longer look at the country and say it is a functioning democracy.”
The lèse-majesté law is at the heart of the issue. Officially known as Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the legislation carries up to a 15 year jail sentence for each charge, and ensures that almost anyone who criticizes the royal family can be prosecuted. Once used as a way to protect the much-loved previous monarch, increasingly the regulation has become a way for the pro-royal and military-friendly elite to maintain their firm grip on power.
The dismantling of Thailand’s democracy has been gradual. Thaksin was driven out as prime minister by a military coup in 2006, mainly because he was seen as too powerful, and his populist policies viewed as dangerously attractive. His sister Yingluck met a similar fate in 2014, only this time it was a court that ousted her. What followed was almost nine years of military-backed rule. Since 1932, Thailand has been through 12 successful coups (as well as many more attempted ones) and multiple constitutions.
The law has been a useful weapon to curb the opposition. Over the last few years, the Constitutional Court has dissolved several political parties, ostensibly for violating electoral laws, but in reality authorities used the legal system to suppress reformist or opposition voices, as the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance notes.
It’s not just representative government that’s at stake. The nation is suffering from a prolonged economic malaise because of the constant reshuffling of political leaders and uncertainty over a $14 billion stimulus plan. Last month, the World Bank trimmed Thailand’s 2024 gross domestic product growth forecast to 2.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent. The nation has lagged compared to its regional peers, posting economic activity of just below 2 per cent for the last decade. In a positive development, the economy expanded at the fastest pace in five quarters on Monday, registering a rise of 2.3 per cent in the three months to June.
Youth unemployment is also a problem. Data from the World Bank indicates that in 2023, Thailand had a jobless rate among those aged 15-24 of 4.4 per cent, with many graduates struggling to find their first job. It’s this demographic that has been attracted by the opposition’s promise of change. Despite continued meddling by the military in the electoral system, and the threat of arrest and imprisonment, they remain politically active and engaged.
They are the reason to be optimistic about Thailand’s future, despite the current impasse. The younger population won’t stop agitating for change, and have found new ways to survive. Take the Move Forward Party. Disbanded from politics, it has reemerged as the People’s Party, with a new head in place: 37-year-old IT expert Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. He has ambitious plans, and wants to win enough seats to form a single-party government in the next elections in 2027. This is a tall ask, in a system that usually produces coalitions, especially if the political aristocracy continue to use the law to stack the odds in their favor.
Still, changing the establishment takes time. Thailand’s conservative ruling classes should pay attention to what has happened in places like Bangladesh, where leaders don’t respond to voters’ concerns. It makes sense to listen to listen to your people.