The upcoming bypoll on the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat is the first significant challenge Samajwadi Party president and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav faces after the demise of his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav. The Mainpuri seat has fallen vacant because of Mulayam Singh's death last month.
The Election Commission has fixed December 5 as the date for the by-election. The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in UP is set to go all out to defeat the Samajwadi Party (SP) in its bastion, from where Mulayam stood victorious five times. While another by-election is scheduled on the same date for the Rampur Vidhan Sabha seat, which fell vacant following top SP leader Azam Khan's conviction, the real challenge for Akhilesh lies in Mainpuri.
Political observers believe that this crucial by-election would have a bearing on Akhilesh's hold over the political legacy he inherited from his father, who rose from humble beginnings to play a prominent role in state and national politics, where he was once in the fray for prime ministership also.
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Akhilesh's worry also comes from his uncle Shivpal Yadav, whose frustration with being denied the "legitimate successor's" position by Mulayam himself was further compounded when Akhilesh not only became the UP chief minister but also took over the reins of the party from his father. After he marched out of the party he had built as a lieutenant to his brother, Shivpal formed an independent party but failed to gain ground.
Shivpal accepting contesting just one seat when he allied with the SP in the last state assembly election in March 2022 further undermined his authority. Having lost the opportunity to inherit the leadership of the party, Shivpal is understood to be now keen on inheriting the legacy of his brother by contesting the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat.
However, Akhilesh has been led to suspect that the uncle was in nexus with the BJP. It is, therefore, unlikely that the SP would field Shivpal. Speculation is also rife that, under the circumstances, Shivpal could plunge into the fray to upset Akhilesh's applecart in Mainpuri, with obvious and oblique support of the BJP.
How Akhilesh handles the situation remains to be seen. That he was unlikely to contest his late father's seat is pretty evident, as that would mean his exit from his present position as the leader of the opposition in the state.
Since he has been asserting for some time that his wife, Dimple Yadav, would not return to ground politics, he is unlikely to field her either. Now that leaves his cousin Dharmendra Yadav, who lost the Azamgarh by-election to the BJP candidate by a thin margin. He could also field his nephew Tej Pratap Yadav, who had won the Lok Sabha election from this very seat after Mulayam vacated the seat in 2014. Tej Pratap is married to one of RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav's daughters.
Akhilesh had distanced himself from Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha by-elections, which simultaneously went to the bypoll earlier in June this year. It is widely discussed that if Akhilesh had cared to campaign at least once for Dhjarmendra, the SP could have retained the Azamgarh seat.
Likewise, his absence from the campaign in Rampur also cost the SP dear. The party nominee Asim Raja, a close confidante of Azam Khan, lost the Rampur Lok Sabha seat to the BJP, whose Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi romped home with a comfortable margin. Azam Khan was in jail then, while Akhilesh chose to keep away from there.
The Lok Sabha bypoll was necessitated following Azam Khan's resignation from the parliamentary seat as he wanted to retain his Vidhan Sabha seat, and now it is his disqualification following his conviction by a lower court that had rendered the seat vacant.
The prevailing situation in both Mainpuri and Rampur puts Akhilesh in a rather piquant position. With the BJP sitting like a hawk, the challenge is enormous for Akhilesh, and the final call he takes is bound to have considerable bearing on his political destiny besides that of the party his father founded in the company of Azam Khan, among others.
(Sharat Pradhan is a Lucknow-based journalist and author)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.