DH Illustration
Did you know that as early as 2009, the Bengaluru-based think-tank Synergia Foundation simulated a pandemic outbreak and analysed its potential impact on governments and industries a full 11 years before Covid-19 hit the world? Or that in 2014, they demonstrated the perils of cyber threats in the deep and dark web at the Munich Security Conference in Germany? These are examples of foresight, envisioning the future, and providing leadership that looks at predictable surprises. Synergia forewarned the larger strategic community in 2014 that pandemics were a looming threat—not just a healthcare narrative but a national security concern. That government leaders in India and elsewhere paid little attention to this warning is another story altogether.
The world is in the midst of rapid flux and multiple transitions. The past is no longer a reliable playbook for how the future will unfold. Preparing for what may come next is a monumental task, particularly in the face of disruptive technologies, political and societal shifts, climate change, future biological threats, the reshaping of global supply chains, renewed Great Power competition, changing demographics, and, of course, wars and conflicts that reverberate globally.
Thought leadership, as demonstrated in the examples above, resides in the belief that the key to preparing for the foreseeable future lies with those who can sense it coming. It’s not about predicting the future but developing foresight—anticipating what might be on the horizon. This requires thinking about multiple possibilities, building scenarios, recognising patterns, and considering the outliers.
Who can provide Thought
Leadership?
Governments and businesses are engrossed in managing day-to-day affairs or following some prescriptive agenda. Consequently, leaders may lose sight of the importance of looking ahead and over the horizon, thinking long-term, and being able to mitigate challenges that are beyond their ambit. It would appear that even the most reputed academic or research institutions, unless mandated, funded, and staffed to conduct ‘blue skies’ thinking, tend to take a problem-solving approach to issues. But such decoding is efficacious
when there are known, defined problems for which solutions can be found post-factum.
The uncharted problems and opportunities of the future will likely be non-linear and multi-dimensional as multiple trends converge into perfect storms. In this era of rapid and complex transitions, we need spaces and institutions capable of standing apart from today’s challenges, envisioning future scenarios, and preparing for them before they arise.
Think-tanks can serve as crucial hubs, aggregating researchers and practitioners with interdisciplinary backgrounds, foresight, and a commitment to providing non-partisan insights that aid informed decision-making. Given mandate and funding, they should be able to look beyond the present and offer guidance on what’s coming and how to prepare for it.
Of course, not all think-tanks are equipped to think about the future. Washington, DC, is filled with think-tanks, but how many predicted the 2008 financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic? Similarly, while there are many think-tanks in Delhi, how many can envision future social, economic, or national security scenarios? Most think-tanks today are engaged in policy advocacy and focused on current issues. While this work contributes significantly to policymaking, it doesn’t necessarily prepare them for forward-thinking.
What does it take?
The key to thinking meaningfully about the future lies in creating institutional or societal platforms that facilitate non-partisan dialogue and discussion. The best thought leadership emerges when people can discuss issues freely or even engage in unstructured, agenda-less conversations. In his recent book Vienna, Richard Cockett illustrates how some of the most impactful ideas of the West emerged from freewheeling discussions among scientists, artists, economists, and political thinkers of diverse backgrounds in Vienna’s coffee shops during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. These intellectual exchanges fostered a rich environment for creativity and foresight. Major institutions like the University of Vienna played a crucial role, but informal settings such as coffeehouses were equally important, serving as gathering spots where thinkers and artists exchanged ideas. This period was marked by a commitment to “exact thinking”, a term attributed to mathematician Kurt Gödel, emphasising methodological rigour and the application of scientific principles across various fields. This intellectual climate fostered groundbreaking work by figures such as Sigmund Freud in psychoanalysis, Gustav Klimt in art, and Ludwig Wittgenstein in philosophy.
Truly free discussions occur when no predetermined outcome exists and everyone can express their thoughts. Thought leadership is more likely to arise when creative and intellectual outliers are allowed to influence mainstream thinking rather than being marginalised. Institutions like MIT, for example, continue to lead in many fields precisely because they foster the coming together of bright minds from across the world, bringing the fringe into the centre, as it were.
Thought to action
Thought leadership should not end with developing scenarios—it must prepare individuals, companies, communities, and nations to navigate through them.
Take, for instance, the Synergia Foundation’s involvement in developing India’s indigenous 5G stack. Although India had not developed technology stacks for earlier generations of mobile telecommunications, it began with a fearful thought in Synergia founder Tobby Simon’s mind that India risked ‘digital colonisation’ if it did not develop indigenous capability in 5G, which other countries were racing to develop. This thought led Synergia to convene government decision-makers, industry players, academia, and R&D institutions for a brainstorming roundtable. The result: Indian industry now boasts its own 5G technology stack.
Bengaluru as a thought
leadership hub
If Synergia can do it, so can other think-tanks in Bengaluru across various domains. The city, home to numerous well-funded and ambitious private universities, is well-positioned to become a hub for ‘blue skies’ thinking. More than any other city in India, Bengaluru offers the perfect blend of culture, ideas, technology, and multidisciplinary thought. Additionally, its distance from Delhi allows for non-partisan thinking and experimentation.
What Bengaluru may need are individuals and institutions driven by a higher calling. Thought leadership cannot be about solving one’s personal or institutional challenges or seeking short-term gains. It must be about serving a purpose greater than oneself, one’s community, or one’s institution. So, who will come up with the next
big idea?