Is West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee a thorn in the fragile fabric of Opposition unity? Will the Congress act as a glue? Is Opposition unity elusive? What is the future of the third front that Telangana Chief Minister and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) chief K Chandrashekar Rao is working hard to create?
These are questions which need answers, but the nature of Indian politics is akin to a T20 cricket match where nothing is certain till the last ball is bowled. What can be said, however, is that unless Opposition leaders unite, it will be impossible to defeat the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Three developments have taken place in recent weeks, which give an indication that after a lot of missed opportunities, the Opposition has started moving in a right direction.
First, until recently it was assumed that despite being on a weak wicket, the grand old party would not forfeit its claim to the post of Prime Minister, in the event of the BJP losing the 2024 general elections. This was the biggest stumbling block for Opposition unity.
However, recently in at least two occasions, the Congress made it clear that it was flexible. In the Raipur plenary session, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said that India was looking at the Opposition with hope, and that the Congress can’t afford to betray its national responsibility. Within a few days of her assertion, party President Mallikarjun Kharge said that everyone had to forget differences and unite, and that the Congress was not adamant on the issue of leading the front. This is a major climbdown for a party which ruled at the Centre for decades.
Second, Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar, at a recent public rally, asked the Congress to take the initiative for Opposition unity. He said that if the Opposition could unite, the BJP would get less than a 100 Lok Sabha seats. This was a bold statement.
Despite denials from his side, Kumar aspires to be the prime ministerial candidate in 2024. The alliance, which he has stitched after leaving the BJP in a lurch, is proof of his political genius and can gravely damage the BJP in Bihar in the 2024 general elections. The Congress reciprocation to his overtures is a heartening sign for Opposition unity.
Third, Tamil Nādu Chief Minister and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader MK Stalin has categorically set the rules for Opposition unity. According to Stalin, to defeat the BJP and to save India’s Constitution, it is important that all opposition parties forget their differences and unite. Adding to it, he said that no such unity was possible without the Congress, and any attempt to form a third front was not desirable.
Stalin’s message is to Rao, Banerjee, and Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal, as all three are averse to the Congress. Rao recently met Sanajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav and Kejriwal; and, it is understood that he is trying to project himself as the prime ministerial candidate. The recent rechristening of his party is indicative of this ambition. It will be interesting to see whether Stalin’s statement will have any impact on the movers and shakers of the third front.
It seems that the two regional leaders have ignored Stalin’s call. In what can be dubbed as a snub to the Congress, Yadav announced that he would not have an alliance with any big party except Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). It remains to be seen if Yadav remains adamant on his stance.
But unlike Yadav, Banerjee is made of a different mettle. She is more mercurial than any leader in the Opposition, which is a major handicap. After winning the West Bengal assembly elections for the third term, she was rather upfront about Opposition unity, but now she is singing a different tune. She has substantially damaged the Congress in Goa and Meghalaya.
After losing the bypolls in Sagardighi, to a Congress candidate, she has said that she won’t have an alliance with any party — and that the Left, the Congress, and the BJP are the same to the TMC. It is widely speculated that she is under pressure due to the central agencies, and might not be ready for any pre-poll alliance. Things could even change closer to the elections.
Unlike Banerjee, it appears that there is a rethinking in AAP. Kejriwal meeting Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray is a significant development. Thackeray is in alliance with the Congress, and he can be a bridge between the Congress and AAP.
The general elections are more than a year away, and a week is a long time in politics. But those who are drawing a parallel with the past are going to be disappointed. The Opposition’s politics was then driven by conviction, the larger issue of democracy, and the Constitution were paramount. Today many Opposition leaders have no linkage with the past, and conviction is not the prime motivator. Politics of compulsion will determine their plans. Therefore, Opposition unity is not such an easy task.
(Ashutosh is Editor, Satyhindi, and author of Hindu Rashtra.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.