DH Illustration
In the end, the humble voter proved to be the ultimate script-writer and delivered a verdict that brought down the incumbent ruling party a notch and infused greater verve into the Opposition. Now, it will be for the BJP to demonstrate that its leaders have the craft to negotiate another term through the thicket of a coalition government.
The NDA 3.0 government will have to be different from its previous two versions. Although the BJP’s allies were part of the governing coalition during the past decade, they were increasingly marginalised, especially during the last five years. With the BJP having 303 MPs in the 17th Lok Sabha, the Modi-led party had been gracious enough to include partners in the Union Council of Ministers. Yet, the parties to which they belonged had little say in the overall scheme of things.
Differences built up over time to such an extent that two of the NDA’s oldest allies -- the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) -- which had been BJP allies since 1996, having supported the 13-day Vajpayee government of the time, broke away. The reasons could be political but there was little effort
to retain the allies whose interests were affected by decisions taken by the
Modi government.
Over the past two decades, first as Chief Minister of Gujarat and later as Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has always enjoyed immense comfort in having secure numbers in the assembly and parliament, respectively. Majorities in legislature translated into government taking decisions decisively, but mostly without adhering to the norm of consultations. The attempts to push through legislation dismissing the concerns of the Opposition offhand and the habit of submitting fewer Bills for parliamentary scrutiny or debate became pronounced. Due processes were jettisoned at the altar of a work culture of ‘speed and scale’ and delivery, which was claimed to be ‘performance’. Parliament’s function to deliberate and debate was given the short-shrift.
It is in this backdrop that political observers will be looking at how the BJP under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah leadership steers the ship through the less placid waters that coalitions stir up. Will political compulsions force them to be more accommodating towards the demands of the principal allies, the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party?
Headed by seasoned leaders who are past masters in dealing with coalition challenges and driving hard bargains in exchange for much-needed support, the JD (U) and the TDP together have a combined strength of 28 MPs. The ballast they provide will permit the NDA 3.0 government with Modi at the helm to carry forward the promise of taking India on the path of development.
In this task, Naidu has built for himself the image of a leader championing reforms. As one credited with having performed and worked wonders in undivided Andhra Pradesh and as a Chief Minister who envisaged his role as that of a CEO, till he suffered electoral debacle in 2004, Naidu could be an ideal partner to back the government’s grand plans to accelerate development.
Naidu was part of the Modi 1.0 government, with his MPs holding important portfolios. However, he walked away after coming under pressure in the state for his inability to secure ‘Special Status’ for the residual state after separation from Telangana. The lack of support that he had expected to the task of building his dream capital at Amravati and attendant issues hastened
his departure from the NDA in 2018, until a reproachment early this year. This time, Naidu is bound to place a wishlist and extract the best bargain he can for the state.
Similarly, Nitish Kumar, too, is well-versed in dealing with the BJP. Intermittently, the Bihar Chief Minister exhibited signs of drawing distance from the current leadership on ideological and political issues. In the Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) under Nitish Kumar proved wrong the political pundits who had virtually written him off.
Unlike Naidu, who just reclaimed the government in Andhra Pradesh, Nitish Kumar will face the electorate in Bihar next autumn. The party would prefer to go into battle under Nitish Kumar and will baulk at any attempt by the BJP to bargain for more seats, at a time when the Rashtriya Janata Dal under Tejaswi Yadav is shaping up as a potent alternative to the JD(U). The need to work on hot-button issues like unemployment is obvious. Nitish Kumar will have to move forward on the data thrown up by the caste census. This will require greater assistance from the Centre.
The JD(U) and the TDP leaderships will first have to secure some firm commitments that Modi has to guarantee that he will stand by this time, ensure allocations in budgets, and work for the release of grants to demonstrate
to the people of these states the advantages of being on the side of the governing coalition.
It is here that the BJP leadership’s mettle will be tested. Besides working to back up its allies, ‘coalition dharma’ will be at play. Though the TDP and JD (U) may have fewer numbers when compared to the BJP in the 18th Lok Sabha, its leaders are not pushovers. Having been part of coalition governments in the past, Nitish Kumar and Naidu would keep testing the waters.
Having run a government with a clear majority so far, Modi will have to now work more closely with the BJP’s partners, especially before pushing forward any major policy issue at a time when the Opposition benches are bolstered by greater presence.
Just days before he stepped down as Prime Minister and called for the dissolution of the 17th Lok Sabha, Narendra Modi said a new 100-day plan was under preparation for the new government and articulated his priorities at the felicitation ceremony at the BJP headquarters on Tuesday night. Modi will require all the engines firing to make his plans work. Putting in some effort to acquire a spirit of accommodation to run a coalition government would be in order.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi)