A vital subtext to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s Uttar Pradesh story is the debate on whether the distribution of free rations on a vast scale can be seen as a prototype of a welfare state on the lines of what exists in Tamil Nadu. The Uttar Pradesh pitch is, however, queered by another persistent narrative: even as there is acknowledgement on the ground that free ration is being distributed, including among those who do not intend to vote for the ruling party, there is also a great deal of chatter among the more vocal and aspirational sections of the OBCs and Dalits, about the BJP regime gradually ending reservations.
There are complaints about quotas for the OBCs and Dalits among government teachers not being filled and reservation criteria not being applied to appointments of teachers in Gorakhpur University, for example. There are charges of the government slowly "selling off" services to private contractors, thereby reducing the number of reserved jobs. The privatisation of public sector units by the BJP is also repeatedly mentioned in Uttar Pradesh as evidence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) thinking that reservation must ultimately come to an end. The fact that the chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, is from the forward Thakur caste, and has publicly declared that he is proud to be a Rajput and is known to promote his caste brethren, has contributed to this narrative.
In travels paced over two months in the electorally crucial state, a fascinating meeting was with a group of Dalit professionals, doctors, writers and retired railway and government officials in the state capital Lucknow. This was a gathering of the section of society that has been beneficiaries of reservation and would be looking to safeguard it. This constituency is very well versed in the views of B R Ambedkar and admires Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) founder Kanshi Ram even as they see party chief Mayawati as their natural leader. Most of the individuals gathered in the room were Jatav Dalits (who make up 54 per cent of the Dalit community, which comprises 21 per cent of the state population). What was extraordinary was that almost all of them were of the view that, in the ongoing election, they intended to break from the past of blindly supporting the BSP in seats where Mayawati's party was not strong. In 2022, they believed, it was crucial for them to vote strategically to defeat the BJP. They were vocal that the BJP regime was slowly but surely ending reservations by not filling quotas and selling off to the private sector.
Even if we presume that poorer and less empowered Jatav Dalits will mostly still stay with the BSP, a party they see as their own, it is significant that the middle class from the community sees things differently. For in the long term, even beyond one election, this gives a sense of the direction of thinking in the Dalit community in the Hindi heartland.
In the state, meanwhile, there is also a section among both the OBCs and Dalits that may not have reached the threshold of seeking rights and entitlements and looking merely to survive. This section sees free rations as a lifeline, and the BJP believes this is the formidable and silent voter base that they call labharthi (beneficiaries). Ironically, in a BJP ruled state, the atmospherics in some seats is so anti-BJP that it is credible to argue that some of the national party's supporters from socially weak sections are silent and prefer not to reveal their voting choices.
Yet, when we return to the constituency that aspires for more than survival, the ration "charity" is described by the OBCs and Dalits as kings throwing some alms in their direction. The gathering in the Lucknow home, well versed in Ambedkarite thinking, certainly saw the ration outreach as part of a structural attempt by a ruling class to throw crumbs at the poor while the rulers spent crores on magnificent events where they showcased themselves. The inauguration of grand temples and corridors is part of that process, they said.
Beyond Dalits, among the OBCs too, including Gujjars in West UP and Kurmis in Awadh and Purvanchal regions, there has been an outreach by political workers of the opposition parties to highlight the issue of shrinking reservation. The OBC leaders who have left the BJP fold to join the SP-led front, such as Swami Prasad Maurya and Om Prakash Rajbhar, are also very vocal about this issue and speak the language reminiscent of the Mandal era. Leading his phalanx, Akhilesh Yadav, too, has stated at public rallies in the last two phases that the BJP is finishing off the reservation by selling off to the private sector.
It is the desperation for jobs in Uttar Pradesh that makes this a volatile issue. The government has tried to offset its inability to create jobs by a welfare outreach. But when a comparison is made with more successful states such as Tamil Nadu, it must be noted that welfarism in the southern state goes hand in hand with the expansion of the private sector and industrialisation besides far better performance in health and education by the government. And reservation is sacrosanct for all parties that have emerged from Dravidian ideology and politics. Conversely, the BJP is the political front of an ideology that does not actually believe in reservation even if they know it is political suicide to say so explicitly.
One interlinked reason for the failure to create jobs in the private sector in Uttar Pradesh is that investments do not go to places where communal disruptions need to be factored in. The muscular Hindutva that Chief Minister Adityanath promotes, with constant dog-whistling against minorities who make up 20 per cent of the population, does not make the state an attractive prospect for investors, that too when manufacturing jobs have only shrunk. Therefore, the state's growing population sees a government job as the only guarantee of security; a count is being kept of reserved jobs, and thousands of applicants queue up for each opening. Whatever outcomes the election brings, among the state's many problems, the big one is joblessness.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and an author.)
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