In poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, an aspect has gone under-reported: the changing dynamics of Dalit politics. Ten days after the gruesome murder of four members of the Pasi community and the suspected rape of a girl in Prayagraj, the matter appears to be already fading from public memory.
Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav tweeted only a mild condemnation of the incident 36 hours after the incident. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati has also been largely silent on the recent spate of crimes against Dalits: the custodial death of a Scheduled Castes member in the Agra prison; the thrashing of a Dalit groom for his audacity to ride a horse during his wedding procession at Mahoba, or the earlier incident of the rape and murder of two girls belonging to the Scheduled Castes in Hathras.
As the National Crimes Records Bureau data for 2018-20 shows, Uttar Pradesh has retained the top spot in crimes against Scheduled Castes by a considerable margin. Against the 11924 such cases registered in the state in 2018, 11829 cases were recorded in 2019, while the figure jumped to 12714 in 2020. Neighbouring Bihar, placed second on the list, recorded approximately half the number of cases for the same period: 7061 cases in 2018, 6544 in 2019 and 7368 in 2020. Madhya Pradesh ranks third among the rogue states with 4753 cases registered in 2018, 5300 in 2019 and 6899 in 2020.
Two pointers emerge from the NCRB data. One, states ruled either directly by the BJP or in alliance with others, have consistently been the worst performers in relation to preventing crimes against the Scheduled Castes. Second, the minds and hearts of the political class no longer seem to get consumed with rage and indignation by Dalit atrocities in quite the same manner as earlier.
From political assertiveness to growing irrelevance
After her devastating political defeat in the 1977 parliamentary elections, the late Indira Gandhi found political resurrection when she rode an elephant to travel down to the remote hamlet of Belchi in Bihar, where upper-caste goons had massacred several Dalits. After the murder of four Scheduled Caste members at Khairlanji in 2006, Maharashtra remained paralysed for months, and the public outcry spread to several states, including Uttar Pradesh. In 2016, politicians of all hues - from Sonia Gandhi to Arvind Kejriwal to Mayawati - dashed down to Una in Gujarat, where seven Dalits were flogged on the pretext of cow protection. In UP, on the other hand, the Dalit factor has evoked only a tepid response in recent months. Regional satraps, including the bua-bhatija (aunt/nephew) duo of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav, have appeared more interested in doing perambulations of temples while continuing to pay lip service to the idea of Dalit empowerment.
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What has changed for Dalit and Muslim politics?'
If the "soft Hindutva" shift of the non-BJP parties has caused the disenfranchisement of the minority Muslims, Dalits are rapidly becoming marginalised as well. If Akhilesh Yadav in UP is reluctant to be seen in the same frame with leaders of "Pasmanda" Muslims, for example, the situation in the Congress-ruled Rajasthan is not altogether different. Into the fourth year of his term, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has not fulfilled major manifesto promises, including the assurance of regularisation of "madarsa" para teachers. Various boards/corporations relating to minority welfare have not been constituted. The leaders of non-BJP parties have appeared to stand firm in the belief that the minority Muslims have been turned into their captive vote banks and that there was no need to woo the community any longer with electoral promises.
The situation appears much the same for Dalit voters. In the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections, also in the 2017 Assembly polls in UP, Dalits substantially cast their lot with the BJP. For instance, in the last UP Assembly polls, the BJP had gone on to win 69 of the 85 seats reserved for SCs in the state. While Jatavs, the caste from which Mayawati hails, have stayed loyal to the BSP, the non-Jatav SC voters have largely shifted to the BJP in recent years. For example, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 48 per cent of the non-Jatav SC votes had gone in favour of the BJP. Dalits, therefore, have come to be regarded more or less as captive vote banks of the BJP, while the movement on backward castes empowerment appears to have gone astray.
The poll arithmetics
The vote share of the SP and BSP has hovered around 20 per cent in recent elections. The BJP vote share spiked to 49 per cent in UP in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 39.6 per cent in the 2017 Assembly elections. Statistical data shows that the BJP vote share does mark a substantial fall in the Assembly polls compared to the party's performance in the Lok Sabha.
A change of government in Lucknow can come about next year only when two factors are achieved - a dip of approximately 10-12 per cent vote share of the BJP and a corresponding rise of the same percentage in favour of the SP, which is being seen as the primary challenger to the BJP.
At the worst of times, the SP and BSP have received the support of their core support base: the Jatav votes for the BSP and the Muslim and Yadav vote blocs for the SP. Therefore, the big challenge for Akhilesh Yadav and the SP is how to take on board another chunk of voters without disturbing the party's traditional and core support base.
Therefore, the outcome of the upcoming UP elections rests on the following two questions. Will the non-Jatav votes of Dalits and non-Yadav votes of the OBCs desert the BJP and move "en masse" towards the SP? Or whether the votes of these communities will get fragmented?
(The writer is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.