It has been two months since Russia launched its operations in Ukraine. The war, which is a defining moment for Europe, has resulted in the death of over 2,000 and 11 million displaced. About 4.8 million children have also borne the brunt of the war.
The Russian action in Ukraine was no surgical strike. It has gone on in a prolonged manner, drawing attention to the capabilities and the quality of Russian defence preparedness.
Ukraine suddenly seems to be in the news for all the wrong reasons. One of the most significant perceptions is that Ukraine is now the beacon of democracy, which was tenuous over recent years before the Russian invasion.
The EU countries within Nato happily coexisted with Russia in an economic and energy partnership. Europe believed that its security matrix provided European markets for Russian energy in return for stability. The German coalition and the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy development pointed to greater European autonomy in dealing with Russia. Rather than be bound to the view from Washington, Europe believed that the Normandy process and the Minsk protocols would hold good.
Nato provocations and Russian reaction finally tipped the balance. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 as it perceived Kyiv was becoming Nato’s catspaw. Whether the Russian perception was correct or the Americans deliberately created this provocation or not are debatable issues for the future. The repercussions are apparent, and they are the concern at this time.
The crisis led to a major recalibration of US policy since the attacks on the World Trade Centre in September 2001. With the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, that US policy wave finally ebbed.
The sense of zeal and a strategic outlook to deal with the world differently, which emerged from the post 9/11 attacks, took the US to lead a Nato coalition outside Europe. With the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the handing over of the country to the Taliban, the US’ post 9/11 policy concluded; their commitment to allies, strategic partners, democracy, human rights and the like, all eroded. A new coalition against China in the Indo-Pacific, for which the Quad, AUKUS and the like was underway.
Uneven response
However, the US has an uneven response to China. Trump’s policy of imposing sanctions on China has not been sustained under Biden. They are evidently more serious about the Indo-Pacific and the Quad. India would have preferred that line of thinking to be the new fault line for American policy: Aggregating its allies, strategic partners, and the virtues of democracy and human rights to challenge China. China has debased the international system and used international rules only for its benefit.
However, the Russian incursion into Ukraine provided the US with a new adhesive for Europe to abide by it for the first time since the dissolution of the USSR. The challenge that Biden would face from a resurgent Europe seeking strategic autonomy has suddenly faded. Russia has upset the security calculus of Europe. The Europeans had little choice but to come behind a US-led Nato.
The Transatlantic Alliance suddenly has a new breath of life. Earlier, issues of trade, climate, China and Russia divided Europe and the US. The Ukraine crisis evolved a new sense of partnership in which the US is the clear leader. Thus, the Ukraine crisis has led to a revitalised leadership of the US which proclaimed itself as a leader of the democratic countries in which the Alliance of Democracies, which the Europeans were promoting, is now muted.
Undoubtedly, the confrontation with Russia brings complicated options to the table. The Cold War had greater clarity because of the near unanimity among the partners. Since then, Europe has not been the same. Neither is the US. Today, besides challenging Russia through strategic and defence efforts focused on Ukraine, Europe and the US are also talking more loudly about human rights, democracy, and their partners’ nature. Has the US tried to live up to this? It invited only select democracies to its Summit for Democracy in 2021. Within the EU itself, there are problems. Countries like Hungary and Poland, whose adherence to European values is under strain.
The biggest gain for the US has been the cementing of its Transatlantic Alliance. The second significant gain for it has been declaring Russia as its systemic enemy. Will this weaken the Indo-Pacific resolve where the real fight ought to be? Should China be let off its transgressions merely because Russia invaded Ukraine? US policy towards Ukraine supports principles like territorial integrity, which cannot be altered by force; democratic countries’ citizens need to be able to determine their destiny; international rules should bind members of the international community. What consequences do they face if they violate those rules? The consequences brought to bear upon Russia are uneven from what the US has tried to do with China, Pakistan and others.
How do the American people think about the current situation? Interest in foreign policy in the US has gone up, as a University of Maryland poll showed in March 2022. As many as 85 per cent of the people follow the crisis. 34 per cent of respondents saw Russia as an enemy, 38 per cent felt it was an unfriendly country, but 24 per cent were neutral. The people remain opposed to the dispatch of US troops to Ukraine, having just departed from Afghanistan; at best, they support a no-fly zone over Ukraine but are concerned about the potential of nuclear confrontation with Russia.
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The poll showed that 66 per cent supported the Biden decision to end imports of Russian energy; a majority were ready to pay the economic price for higher energy costs and inflation, which Europe is less prepared to do.
Most importantly, 36 per cent of respondents said they now have a more favourable view of Biden. Therefore, this has been an opportunity for Biden to show decisive leadership. However, only 27 per cent of the Americans felt that the US remained a good example as a democracy for other countries to follow.
A majority of Americans still believe that the US need not unnecessarily take on the free world’s leadership though they blame Russia for upsetting the balance. As many as 38 per cent felt that Nato played a crucial role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 41 per cent thought it played a minor role. Notably, 57 per cent of Americans felt that the post-Cold War era had ended, with 92 per cent blaming Russian for it.
Biden used this occasion to manifest himself as a better leader and overcome the Afghanistan withdrawal’s negative perceptions. He may see Russia gaining support in unexpected quarters, and American diplomacy will have to work harder. The pattern of support and reservations about the US action against Russia does not correlate to the Biden administration’s rhetorics about global attitudes in their favour.
(The writer is a former Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union)
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