Supporters cheer during a rally for Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US.
Credit: Reuters Photo
By Karishma Vaswani
American influence in Asia has long been based on diplomacy, defense and development, but also importantly, the promotion of democratic values above all other systems of governance. Beijing is offering nations an alternative to the US-led order. Whoever emerges as the victor in this week’s election, Washington shouldn’t make that choice an easy one.
China’s clout in the region is growing on many fronts, but it’s been accompanied by increasingly assertive acts in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. That has provided a useful argument for the US to convince partners and allies of the merits of working together.
Security is one metric where the US has made strong gains. Under President Joe Biden, ensuring American power remains paramount in the Indo-Pacific has been a key priority. His administration has elevated the importance of the Quad, an informal grouping that brings together the US, Japan, India and Australia, in an alliance of democracies.
Biden has also expanded strategic partnerships with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The introduction of new security pacts like Aukus, with the US and the UK agreeing to collaborate on providing Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, has beefed up Canberra’s defense capabilities in the face of growing strategic competition with China.
Trade is where the US is lagging behind China, which was ranked as the leading economic power in Southeast Asia in an August 2024 survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Beijing’s offer is underpinned by the promise of greater economic growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, and this is an area where Washington has missed a major strategic opportunity.
Under Donald Trump, the US pulled out of a massive Asia-Pacific focused trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would have covered 12 nations and about 40 per cent of global gross domestic product. The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is a poor substitute.
Many in Asia are worried about what might happen if Trump’s promises of tariffs materialise. If duties are implemented and countries retaliate, US imports would drop by more than 50 per cent and exports by about 60 per cent, according to Bloomberg Economics. Meanwhile, China reciprocation would also have consequences for global growth, shaving 0.5 per cent off GDP by 2028.
The anxiety over protectionism under another Trump presidency is understandable. Globalization, a rules-based order, and free trade, championed by the US in the post-World War II era, have helped to lift incomes and standards of living across Asia. It’s another reason why Kamala Harris is considered a safer pair of hands than Trump.
Still, there’s no denying that American soft power has taken a hit. Asians have long looked up to the US. From Jakarta to Jaipur, it’s been a place to send our kids to university so they can get better jobs, and make a better life for themselves. We want the American Dream for our children. Many in the region fear more instability is to come, after watching the chaos in US politics in the last few months.
The disenchantment with US democracy comes with a firmer conviction, especially among the region’s Muslim-majority countries, that Washington isn’t a benign actor that abides by international rules. The Israel-Hamas conflict and the treatment of fellow Muslims in Gaza, has many in the Global South scrutinizing what it sees as the US’s double standards. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, and Malaysia’s desire to join the BRICs group of emerging-market powers — that combines Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — can be viewed through that lens.
There are reasons to be optimistic. The US has been an outperformer among global advanced economies. The democratic system, as messy as it seems, provides checks and balances, and is good for business. As we have seen in other elections this year — like India’s — the system does eventually reflect the will of the people even in imperfect democracies. If you don’t like your leaders, you can show them how you feel at the polling station.
Autocracies like China’s are offering people a different way to live and be governed. A clear and decisive result in the US election, which is honored by all parties, would help to restore credibility in the American way. Champions and allies of the US in Asia are rooting for that outcome.