A portrait of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is lit on a boat ahead of his roadshow for the Lok Sabha elections, in Varanasi, Sunday, May 12, 2024.
Credit: PTI Photo
An officially sponsored demographic study purports to demonstrate that the proportion of Muslims has accelerated in India, while that of Hindus has fallen precipitously in the post-colonial era. This is in line with the Sangh parivar’s hoary chestnut about the Muslims reproducing at an exponential rate and seeks to buttress the shibboleth that the Hindus are in danger of being reduced to a minority.
The headline number that is offered by the study ‘Share of Religious Minorities, A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)’ by Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra under the aegis of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM is that the share of the Muslims in the population rose from 9.84 per cent in 1950 to 14.09 per cent in 2015, while the share of the Hindus fell from 84.68 to 78.06 per cent in the same period. The study uses data from India’s decadal censuses beginning 1950 because ‘data collection became more scientific, timely and of high quality’ then.
Seven censuses have been conducted since Independence, beginning 1951 and ending 2011. The eighth, slated for 2021, has been indefinitely postponed by the Narendra Modi regime, of which more in a bit. The shares of different religious groups have changed gradually. The share of the Hindus fell by 7.82 per cent; that of the Muslims rose by 4.25 per cent. The share of all others rose from 5.48 to 7.85 per cent.
These figures need to be situated in the context not just of numbers, but also in terms of historical developments. Despite what the paper says of increased enumerative efficiencies, we have to look at the context of Partition for the 1951 Census and, for instance, the fact that there was no enumeration for Jammu and Kashmir; the numbers were extrapolated.
In any case, we are looking at small changes over a period of 65 years. Presenting these as percentages is misleading because of the low baselines. For instance, the paper points out that the share of the Muslim population rose by 43.15 per cent. But that’s from a small baseline number of 9.84 per cent. The fall in the Hindu share of the population is only 0.92 per cent on the higher baseline of 84.68 per cent, which is not underlined. Similarly, for others, the percentage growth is over 30 per cent against a small baseline.
This is why the Population Foundation of India (PFI) warns us against reading the study’s numbers at face value. In a press release, it said, ‘The study's focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community.’
The PFI also pointed out that the decadal population growth rate of Muslims has been declining over the past three decades as the Census figures show. It says: ‘Specifically, the decadal growth rate for Muslims decreased from 32.9% in 1981-1991 to 24.6% in 2001-2011. This decline is more pronounced than that of Hindus, whose growth rate fell from 22.7% to 16.8% over the same period. The census data is available from 1951 to 2011 and is quite similar to the data in this study, indicating that these numbers are not new.’
Figures on fertility rates suggest the same trends. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) figures suggest that while the fertility rates for India have been falling steeply, the Muslim community has registered the highest decline. Between 1992 and 2015, thus, the fertility rate in the Muslim community fell from 4.4 to 2.6, while in the Hindu community, it fell from 3.3 to 2.1. For comparison, among the Christian community, it has fallen from 2.9 to 2.0. The numbers are converging. There is no need for demonising or scare-mongering.
For instance, the fertility rate in Uttar Pradesh is 2.4, while it is 1.6 in West Bengal according to NFHS figures. We certainly should not reach any unwarranted conclusions from this.
The current regime and its drumbeaters thrive on grey areas created by fudged figures, withheld data, and misrepresentation. That is why it has postponed or suspended important enumeration exercises like the Census. Inconvenient truths are sought to be airbrushed out of existence, as was dramatically seen when the director of the Institute of Population Studies was sacked.
It is necessary to be vigilant about such manoeuvres. The demonisation of the Muslim community by peddling falsehoods about the imminence of them overrunning India is of a piece with the kind of shameful rhetoric that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used about the Congress planning to make them the beneficiaries of loot from the majority community.
It’s time to consign all of it to the dustbins of the here and now.
(Suhit K Sen is author of ‘The Paradox of Populism: The Indira Gandhi Years, 1966-1977’.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.