Amid talk that the country's political skies would get reconfigured after the upcoming Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly elections, a theory has gained currency: The UP outcome could determine the continuance or otherwise of Ashok Gehlot as the Chief Minister in Congress-ruled Rajasthan.
First, the disclaimers: For all of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's efforts to breathe fire and energy into the UP campaign, the Congress continues to be a marginal player that could at best increase its vote share (from six per cent in 2017) to around 12-15 per cent - converting into a win of between 20 to 50 seats in the 403-member assembly. Also, UP's political dynamics, which oscillate between the "Hindutva" and the "Lohiate" ideologies, are different from the easy-paced and orthodox politics of India's desert state that remains influenced by feudal traditions from the age of the maharajas. Yet, there are reasons to believe that UP will have a collateral outcome on Rajasthan.
The revolving door
Like Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and UP, Rajasthan has also been a revolving door for political parties in the last two decades. A repeat term has not been possible for either the Congress or the BJP, with Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje replacing one another every five years. With Gehlot 70 years old and Raje now 68, the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been contemplating a generational change. If the BJP retains UP, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah team could dump Raje altogether. And, if the Congress performs reasonably well, the party leadership could get persuaded to try out an out-of-the-box and "Punjab-type" experiment to shore up its chances of overcoming the anti-incumbency in the 2023 Assembly elections.
The importance of being Gehlot
Gehlot has remained a valued asset for the Congress. He was the election in-charge of Gujarat in 2017 when the Congress gave the BJP a run for its money with the saffron party's tally was brought down under the three-figure mark in the 182-member Assembly.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and current party General Secretary KC Venugopal were accommodated in the Rajya Sabha from the Rajasthan quota. The late Ahmed Patel was also elected to the Rajya Sabha, with Gehlot ensuring Congres transporting party MLAs to Karnataka to prevent them from being influenced by the BJP. At critical moments, the Rajasthan chief minister has also come in handy by playing host to party MLAs from Assam, Karnataka or Maharashtra. While Congress governments fell because of large-scale defections of party MLAs in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Goa, Gehlot staved off the challenge posed last year by a group of legislators led by Sachin Pilot. In short, Gehlot has proven credentials as a party strategist who can also be trusted upon by the party high command.
Why the change
Yet, there are reasons why Gehlot must take a break from Rajasthan. The most prominent is his over-exposure in ever-changing and youthful state demography. Gehlot's style of orthodox politics has become predictable and does not seem to be resonating in the same manner as earlier - particularly among the young and aspirational new generation.
In his third term, Gehlot is seen as having failed to live up to expectations. For instance, he has been unable to build a solid counter-narrative to the BJP's aggressive Hindutva push-falling back on the easy but dangerous ploy of resorting to "soft Hindutva". In the past three years, he has chiefly been seen engaged in firefighting -- quelling the rebellion by party MLAs or countering the Covid-19 outbreak. His "soft Hindutva" pitch - coupled with the state government's neglect of the party's core support base among Muslims and Dalits - has been threatening to unsettle the party's core support base.
"In the panchayat elections, the Congress won in three of the six district bodies on the strength of the bulk votes of the Muslims, but not one member of the community has been appointed chairman. The Rajasthan Public Services Commission (RPSC) does not have a single Muslim member. The manifesto promise on the appointment of madrasa teachers has not been fulfilled," complained Sikar-based social activist Ashfaq Kayamkhani.
PL Mimroth of the Centre for Dalit Rights conveyed similar sentiments. "While states including Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have passed an Act providing for mandatory budgetary allocation for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes welfare, the Gehlot government has been sitting over the proposal. Atrocities against Dalits have risen, although this situation has come about because more First Information Reports (FIRs) in such cases are now being registered."
Options for the Congress leadership
Unlike some other states, the Congress roots run deep in Rajasthan. The party does fancy its chances of beating anti-incumbency in the 2023 Assembly elections, particularly if Raje is kept away from the BJP campaign. Both Raje and Gehlot have been accused of preventing the emergence of the second rung of leadership within their respective parties.
The challenges with the Congress high command are the following. Who to choose as Gehlot's replacement in the given situation of the state party's scarce talent pool? Since he cannot be summarily dumped, how can Gehlot be persuaded to step aside from the chief ministership?
Gehlot's primary challenger, Sachin Pilot, could have been considered the obvious replacement. However, Gehlot can ruin the party's electoral prospects if not handled with care. In any case, the talk of a change of horses mid-course has opened up the game of thrones once more. The Jat community has revived its long-standing demand to elevate one of their own as the chief minister. Brahmin leaders such as former Union minister CP Joshi are beginning to fancy their chances. Manju Meghwal, Mamta Bhupesh and Harish Chaudhary are being discussed as other possibilities.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
Watch the latest DH Videos here: