High inflation. President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings. Polls showing that a majority of Americans were dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
The landscape heading into the 2022 midterm elections looked bleak for incumbents across the country, and for Democratic ones in particular, as many braced to feel voters’ outrage after Republican-led attacks on crime, immigration and high food and gas prices. But early tallies show that voters have mostly opted to keep their members of Congress.
Of more than 365 House districts in which an incumbent faced reelection, only six Democrats have so far lost their seats: Cindy Axne of Iowa, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, Al Lawson of Florida and Tom O’Halleran of Arizona. All six were competing in places where redistricting had made their chances harder.
On the Republican side, that number stands at three: Steve Chabot of Ohio, Mayra Flores of Texas and Yvette Herrell of New Mexico.
In the Senate, no incumbent has lost reelection yet, although three Democrats in battleground states — Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia — remain in heated races.
“Without the most vulnerable Democratic races settled, it is hard to draw sweeping conclusions,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes congressional races. “But so far, there doesn’t seem to have been — in either chamber — an anti-incumbent wave.”
If Cortez Masto, Kelly and Warnock hold on, Rubashkin added, it will be the first time that no Senate incumbent has lost a general election since 1914.
Democrats attribute their victories to strong candidates, robust fundraising and effective messaging on abortion and on legislative accomplishments like a major bipartisan infrastructure package and measures to lower the costs of prescription drugs.
Republicans countered that they had, in effect, defeated the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents even before the midterm campaign began.
“We spent the early part of the cycle aggressively coaxing Democrats into retirement,” said Calvin Moore, a spokesperson for the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super political action committee devoted to electing House Republicans. “So a huge number of the competitive seats were open seats. If their candidates are so strong, why did they all run for the hills?”