Justin Trudeau's surprise announcement that he and his wife were separating, just a week after a broad cabinet reshuffle, underscores the Canadian prime minister's focus and intent to lead his Liberal Party into a fourth election, despite sagging opinion polls, pollsters and insiders said.
On Wednesday, Trudeau and his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau said they were splitting up after 18 years of marriage. It is one of Trudeau's biggest personal crises, although insiders and commentators said he wants to ride out the aftershocks.
"He's running again," said a source close to Trudeau, when asked whether the prime minister might be having second thoughts. The source was not authorized to speak about the matter publicly.
Trudeau said the couple took the decision after many difficult conversations. His office said the two would focus on raising their children.
Trudeau, 51, has always stressed the importance of family. He and his wife were seen on campaign trails, with his children by his side after three successive wins starting in 2015.
Whenever the next election is held - it must take place by October 2025 but could occur earlier - Trudeau's campaign by all accounts will look different.
"The shuffle was a political clearing of the decks and this is a sort of personal clearing of the decks ... he seems determined to stay on," said Roderick Phillips, history professor at Ottawa's Carleton University.
Shake-up
Trudeau's Liberal minority government relies on the support of the left-of-center New Democratic Party (NDP) to pass legislation. The NDP has agreed to keep Trudeau in power until mid-2025 but that deal is not binding.
"This is an incredibly difficult time for anyone to have to go through ... particularly to go through a separation in the public eye," NDP leader Jagmeet Singh told reporters on Thursday during a visit to Halifax.
Trudeau had no public events scheduled on Thursday. His itinerary said he was holding private meetings.
Surveys of public opinion show voters are starting to tire of Trudeau. The cabinet reshuffle was designed to build up his core economic team in response to cost-of-living challenges that Canadians have grappled with for more than two years.
Nik Nanos of polling firm Nanos Research said the separation cast a new light on a shuffle where several promising ministers received big promotions.
"This cabinet was likely made with a sensitivity to manage key files while Trudeau spends more time focused on his family," he said by email.
Trudeau's father, former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, also separated from his wife Margaret - known popularly as Maggie - when in office. The split occurred in 1977 and he lost an election in 1979 before winning power again in 1980.
"The separation of Maggie and Pierre is an interesting historical antecedent, but I don't think there was any clear connection to the present situation nor is there any clear causal link to his loss," Frank Graves, head of polling form EKOS, said.
"If it had damaged him politically it is hard to explain how he (Pierre) achieved another majority government," he added.
Graves said the news of Trudeau's separation was unlikely to have "much if any discernible impact on the voter landscape”.
Toronto resident Denise Davison, 60, said she believed the separation had no bearing on Trudeau's ability to be an effective prime minister.
"Actually, if he's going to be in a better state of mind and a happier state of himself it might bode better for us as a country," Davison said.