President Joe Biden’s top aides scrambled Sunday to reaffirm their commitment to the idea of potential normalisation of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, even as Israel prepares for the start of a full-scale war against Palestinian militants.
On several US talk shows, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cast normalisation as a choice between regional peace and the terrorism carried out by Hamas, the militant group in Gaza.
“It would really change the prospects of the entire region far into the future,” Blinken said on CBS News of Israel’s broadening of relations with Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Sunni Muslim nation in the region. “Now, who’s opposed to that? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran. So, I think that speaks volumes. And there are really two paths before the region.”
Blinken added an important caveat, which was that the drive for a diplomatic deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia could not be a substitute for a two-state solution to address the needs of the Palestinians.
But US officials have been unable to make headway on that for decades. So in both the Trump and Biden administrations, a main diplomatic effort in the Middle East has been promoting normalization between Israel and Arab nations, with Palestinian officials and representatives playing no real role in the talks.
In recent months, Biden and his top aides have attempted to negotiate with both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a complex three-way normalisation deal by the end of the year. The new war will almost certainly throw off that timeline, but US officials have been telling Saudi and Israeli officials in calls over the weekend that they are hopeful the discussions can continue.
They are also watching Saudi reaction carefully and gauging whether Crown Prince Mohammed might change his stance, especially if the Israeli military kills many Palestinian civilians in a Gaza offensive, which would ignite outrage across the Arab world.
Saudi officials appear to be taking a wait-and-see stance before continuing with the normalization efforts. Dennis Ross, who helped form Middle East policy for several US presidents, said he had spoken to a Saudi official after the attack, and “for the moment, it is all on hold.”