With 31 days left for the US presidential election in November, and President Donald Trump testing positive for Covid-19, an important question has been put to the fore. What happens if Trump is unable to participate in the election anymore?
Here’s what you need to know
Can the November 3 election be postponed?
Technically, the election can be postponed. The American Constitution gives Congress the power to determine the election date. According to US law, the election takes place on the first Tuesday of November, every four years. However, a House of Representatives that is controlled by the Democrats will most likely object to it and may not allow postponement of the election.
What happens if Trump withdraws before the election?
Both the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee (RNC) have rules that will allow members of both parties to vote for a replacement nominee, but it is too late to replace a candidate in time for the election due to the logistics involved in the voting process.
Early voting due to Covid-19 is already underway and over 2 million ballots have been cast. The deadline to make a change on the ballots in many states has passed. Mail-in ballots, which are expected to be used widely, have been sent to millions of voters in over 20 of 50 states.
In theory, the RNC would go to court asking for an order that would allow a change of names in the ballot. However, there wouldn’t be enough time to reprint ballots at that point in time.
Hence, a change in the ballot is unlikely, even if a replacement nominee for Trump is chosen. It is highly possible that Trump would remain on the ballot.
Unless Congress delays the election, Americans would still vote for either Trump or Biden.
What happens if Trump is incapicitated after he wins the election?
This scenario is the trickier one. The votes for President, contrary to popular belief, are cast in the electoral college. The question now would be whether an elector can cast their vote if the president wins the popular vote but cannot serve.
Some states allow electors to vote for the candidate of their choice and are not bound by law to vote for the candidate who has won their state, which is traditionally the case. However, a number of states legally bind their electors to vote for the candidate who won their state.
If Trump becomes unable to be president after he won the election, the RNC would choose a replacement and electors would vote for the RNC’s recommendation.
What does the law say?
American law is unprepared for such an unprecedented situation, if President Trump is unable to contest in the election at this point in time. Americans would still vote for him or Joe Biden unless the election is postponed. Postponement of the election would allow the RNC to choose a replacement nominee and states would issue fresh ballots to voters. Since the likelihood of postponement is very low, the situation opens a new can of worms in the form of what may happen.
If Trump were to win the November 3 election and withdraw afterwards, RNC would choose a replacement and electoral college voters would vote for that replacement nominee.
American experts of law are divided and have varying opinions on what may happen if President Trump becomes unable to take in the election before November 3 as there are no clear legal rules.
This uncertainty has left many scrambling to search for a solution, should the unfortunate situation arise. This precarious scenario may have several political, economic and electoral repercussions, including plummeting stock markets and the Republican party fighting over a potential replacement among others.