Thai piranthaal vazhi pirakkum. The Tamil adage, much used specially during the Tamil month of Thai beginning on January 15, translates into English as ‘All problems resolve when Thai is born’.
And so, the crowd cheering that followed Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s announcement made at the Pongal celebrations in Jaffna on January 15, might have more to do with an eternal optimist’s faith in the ‘Thai’ adage than the commoner’s interpretation of the Sri Lankan history replete with broken promises.
And to be fair to Ranil, he had told his Tamil audience that it was his government’s “hope” to fully implement the 13thAmendment “not only in the (Tamil) North but also in the South, the chief ministers are demanding that it be implemented”. The president was brutally honest—he was only ‘hoping’ to fully implement the 13th Amendment and then, it would be done in the Sinhala South too.
What is 13th Amendment?
A baby of the Indo-Lanka Accord signed by President J R Jayewardene and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in Colombo on July 29, 1987, the 13th Amendment had as its main agenda devolution of powers among the nine provincial councils (PCs) that it created with the ultimate goal to self-govern while keeping with the Centre those critical areas such as defence, foreign affairs, and finance, including the Central Bank.
Subjects like agriculture, education, health, housing, police, and land were devolved to the PCs, but then, Colombo would never let go of its absolute control of the land and police departments. Besides, the overriding powers enjoyed by the executive president restricted the free functioning of the PCs, which also suffered serious restrictions of financial powers.
While the provincial chief ministers wailed that they had no real administrative control over their regions and not enough money even to buy the basic stationery, successive presidents made sure that most of the administrative powers remained in their hands. Only recently, the 20th Amendment to the Constitution diluted the powers of the Executive Presidency and improved the Parliament’s say in the running of the country.
Can Ranil keep up his promise?
In the backdrop of such a situation wherein true democracy down the line has been denied by the Executive President, it is a million-dollar question whether Ranil would keep his promise on the implementation of the 13th Amendment anytime soon.
Within a couple of days of his Pongal oration in Jaffna, he told a Muslim conference in Colombo that he was talking to all sections of the society— the Sinhala majority, the Tamils, and the Muslims — to understand their problems and try to work towards solutions that ensure ‘reconciliation and co-existence’.
“We are facing our 75th year (of independence) after most of our time has been spent fighting each other,” Ranil pointed out. Such confessions of guilt and promises of a better future have frequently figured in the political rhetoric in Sri Lanka, only to be swept aside by the deep-rooted racism among the Sinhala majority and the disunity among the minority Tamils that together thwarted any progress towards such ‘reconciliation and co-existence’.
The nearly three decades of the Tamil separatist war had its toll. The heavy dose of corruption by the rulers in Colombo and the imprudent administrative decisions by the Gotabaya Rajapaksa regime, besides the Covid disaster, brought Sri Lanka its worst economic crisis since 1948.
Despite all the odds staring at them, the 21 million people may still have some good reasons to look for better days now. The exit of the Rajapaksas is not really complete since their MPs still dominate the Parliament and control Ranil, who has only himself as the lone member of the United National Party (UNP).
However, it appears that the Rajapaksas have been chastened by the Galle Face revolt that saw the fleeing of Gotabaya from the country and the increased international interventions by way of helping the island out of its deep hole. Also, the hardliners among the Sinhala politicians and Buddhist clergy have softened down significantly on the hitherto-allergic Tamil aspirations.
India’s help vis-à-vis economy and socio-political reconciliation
And India is doing its bit to help both in the repair of the island’s debt-ridden economy and the arduous process of socio-political reconciliation while helping itself in regaining precious ground it has lost over the years to China.
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s just concluded two-day visit to Sri Lanka is seen as critical in this effort as it cleared Delhi’s debt restructuring plan, which was crucial for Colombo’s application before the IMF.
As the other major creditor for Sri Lanka, China’s approval of its debt restructuring is also needed for the IMF bail-out; this is expected to come anytime now after Jaishankar’s ‘good word’ delivered to Ranil at their Friday meeting.
While Jaishankar reasserted that India would “go the extra mile” to help Sri Lanka and his latest mission was a reaffirmation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘neighbourhood first’ element in the Indian foreign policy, Ranil expressed satisfaction that his guest has quickened the bail-out process as Sri Lanka would be receiving $2.5 billion from the IMF now, and close to $5 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
“The total will be $7.5 billion. Adding the $3 billion from the restructuring of unprofitable government agencies can add up to $10 billion, which will enable the economy to recover and bring the country out of this suffering,” Ranil beamed.
Jaishankar extracts assurance from Ranil
There were other equally important positives that Jaishankar had on his Lanka itinerary. Tamil sources in Jaffna say that even before he boarded the plane in Delhi, he had got the assurance from Ranil that the provincial council elections would be held, and the devolution of powers would begin in all sincerity and seriousness.
Jaishankar’s Lankan agenda also had several India-aided development projects, some in the Tamil areas and many others to help the Sinhala population. It was a good albeit belated strategy to win the confidence of the island’s majority community that has always nursed deep suspicions about India — even more so since Indira Gandhi initiated her controversial move to ‘discipline’ Colombo by creating Tamil militancy in the little neighbour.
And amid all these project launches, the foreign minister also sealed the agreements for Indian participation in alternative energy projects in three islands in the strategically important Palk Strait.
The Chinese had spit fire when they were told last year that these projects were being shifted out of their drawing board to Delhi’s; for, placing their men and snooping machines on the islands barely 40 minutes of boat ride from Rameswaram would have immensely helped in Beijing’s master plan to create a new battlefront in southern India and thereby dilute the concentration of Indian troops in the north and north-eastern sectors.
‘Lot of ground to make’
Yet, even amid all these ‘positives’, there is the gnawing reality that there is still a lot of ground to make, and past experiences do not encourage complacency. The picture would be incomplete without sketching the Tamils’ attitude towards India.
There was a time when the portraits of Indian leaders were prominently displayed on the walls of the Jaffna homes, but now, prominent Tamil leaders openly spew venom at Delhi while holding secret parleys with not just the supposedly belligerent Sinhala top brass but also make ‘deals’ with the Dragon.
It all means there is quite a bit of homework remaining for Jaishankar and his colleagues in the Cabinet.
(The writer is a senior journalist and a Lanka expert based in Chennai)