Shares of Trump's media firm near record low following his return to X

Shares of former US President Donald Trump's media company dipped and neared record lows on Wednesday, following weak quarterly results and the Republican presidential candidate's return to social media platform X.

Trump's dwindling lead in polls and election betting markets in recent weeks has also hit the stock, which has been seen by some retail traders as a bet on whether Trump would win a second term.

Trump majority owns Trump Media Technology Group, whose main asset is the Truth Social app popular among some conservatives.

On Tuesday, Trump marked his return to X with an interview with the platform owner Elon Musk.

Twitter suspended Trump's account in January 2021, but it was reinstated by Musk in 2022 after he bought the site and took it private. The former president has made several posts in recent days.

As many as 1.3 million people tuned in to the lengthy conversation where the pair discussed topics ranging from the assassination attempt on Trump to geopolitics and the economy.

The fact that the conversation took place on X instead of Trump's rival platform Truth Social highlighted to investors that the latter remains a niche player in the social media landscape, analysts said.

"The decision to broadcast the chat with Musk on X was something of a slap in the face for Trump investors who must be feeling rather unloved and a little disrespected," said Dannie Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.

Trump frequently posts on his Truth Social platform, which was launched in February 2022, but his posts there reach a much smaller audience than on X.

With 83 days to go before the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, contracts for a Trump victory are trading at 45 cents, with a potential $1 payoff if he wins. Trump contracts traded as high as 69 cents in mid-July before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump Media stock has lost more than half its value since going public in March. Its market valuation is down to $4.73 billion from over $9 billion earlier this year.

Shares were down 1.9% at $23.54 in trading on Wednesday. The stock tumbled to $22.84 on April 16 after the company said it could sell millions of shares.

"The company's stock is slowly facing the truth of its upside-down financials," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital.

Trump Media reported another quarterly loss on Fridayalong with a fall in revenue.

"Add to that the news that revenues were down 30% compared to a year earlier and that a huge chunk of change has been spent on a licensing agreement to power new streaming service Truth+ and there will be concern about the future of the company if Trump's popularity dwindles further," Hewson said.

Analysts also raised concerns about the stock's performance if Trump fails to win the presidential elections in November.

"If Trump loses the presidential election, it may be a further blow to DJT shares; but even if he wins, the stock's time in the sun may have passed," Schulman added.