<p>New York: Investors in the world's largest cryptocurrency are anticipating a significant downward move after bitcoin failed to hit an all-time peak of $100,000, according to a crypto trading platform citing recent options activity.</p>.<p>Bitcoin hit a record high of $99,830 on Nov 22, but it has since fallen more than 8 per cent to a one-week low of 91,377.32 on Tuesday.</p>.<p>The best-known cryptocurrency has soared 120 per cent so far this year and about 34 per cent this month with the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress. Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet," and accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin.</p>.Bitcoin at record highs, sets sights on $100,000.<p>Nick Forster, founder of onchain options decentralized protocol Derive with total trade volume of $7.1 billion, said in emailed comments on Tuesday that the so-called call-put skew index for the upcoming Dec. 27 bitcoin expiry showed a significant 30 per cent drop in the last 24 hours, as market participants shifted toward more protective strategies.</p>.<p>The call-put skew, which reflects market sentiment, refers to the difference in implied volatility between calls (options to buy) and puts (options to sell). This skew still shows a preponderance of calls over puts, although it has since declined.</p>.<p>"It suggests traders are hedging against potential downside risks," Forster said, likely in response to BTC falling sharply. "However, pullbacks like these are not uncommon in bull markets."</p>.<p>Investors are looking to Dec. 27, when $11.8 billion in bitcoin options expire that could trigger major moves in either direction.</p>.<p>According to Foster, there is a 68 per cent chance of bitcoin moving 16.03 per cent lower to $81,493 or 19.9 per cent higher to $115,579 by December 27. There is, however, a smaller probability of about 5 per cent of bitcoin making bigger moves -- a 29.49 per cent fall to $68,429 or a 41.83 per cent surge to $137,645 by the same date.</p>.<p>Derive data also showed higher odds of 45 per cent of bitcoin hitting $100,000, from last week's 34 per cent, with a new 4 per cent probability of surpassing $150,000.</p>.<p>Forster also noted stability in bitcoin's volatility in the last seven days, with the seven-day at the money implied volatility at 63 per cent and the 30-day level at 55 per cent.</p>.<p>"This close alignment suggests the market anticipates significant movements soon."</p>.<p>Bitcoin has come off its high perch for now, and one of reasons cited by market participants for the decline was good old profit-taking.</p>.<p>Anthony Pompliano, founder and chief executive officer at Professional Capital Management, in his letter to clients on Tuesday, cited _checkonchain.com analysis, which noted that long-term holders have distributed $60 billion worth of supply in the last 30-days.</p>.<p>Of long-term holders' supply moved since the bitcoin's bottom of $15,479 hit during the FTX collapse two years ago, 21 per cent of it has happened in November, which is the "heaviest profit-taking we have seen so far this cycle," according to a post of _checkonchain.com on X. </p>
<p>New York: Investors in the world's largest cryptocurrency are anticipating a significant downward move after bitcoin failed to hit an all-time peak of $100,000, according to a crypto trading platform citing recent options activity.</p>.<p>Bitcoin hit a record high of $99,830 on Nov 22, but it has since fallen more than 8 per cent to a one-week low of 91,377.32 on Tuesday.</p>.<p>The best-known cryptocurrency has soared 120 per cent so far this year and about 34 per cent this month with the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress. Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet," and accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin.</p>.Bitcoin at record highs, sets sights on $100,000.<p>Nick Forster, founder of onchain options decentralized protocol Derive with total trade volume of $7.1 billion, said in emailed comments on Tuesday that the so-called call-put skew index for the upcoming Dec. 27 bitcoin expiry showed a significant 30 per cent drop in the last 24 hours, as market participants shifted toward more protective strategies.</p>.<p>The call-put skew, which reflects market sentiment, refers to the difference in implied volatility between calls (options to buy) and puts (options to sell). This skew still shows a preponderance of calls over puts, although it has since declined.</p>.<p>"It suggests traders are hedging against potential downside risks," Forster said, likely in response to BTC falling sharply. "However, pullbacks like these are not uncommon in bull markets."</p>.<p>Investors are looking to Dec. 27, when $11.8 billion in bitcoin options expire that could trigger major moves in either direction.</p>.<p>According to Foster, there is a 68 per cent chance of bitcoin moving 16.03 per cent lower to $81,493 or 19.9 per cent higher to $115,579 by December 27. There is, however, a smaller probability of about 5 per cent of bitcoin making bigger moves -- a 29.49 per cent fall to $68,429 or a 41.83 per cent surge to $137,645 by the same date.</p>.<p>Derive data also showed higher odds of 45 per cent of bitcoin hitting $100,000, from last week's 34 per cent, with a new 4 per cent probability of surpassing $150,000.</p>.<p>Forster also noted stability in bitcoin's volatility in the last seven days, with the seven-day at the money implied volatility at 63 per cent and the 30-day level at 55 per cent.</p>.<p>"This close alignment suggests the market anticipates significant movements soon."</p>.<p>Bitcoin has come off its high perch for now, and one of reasons cited by market participants for the decline was good old profit-taking.</p>.<p>Anthony Pompliano, founder and chief executive officer at Professional Capital Management, in his letter to clients on Tuesday, cited _checkonchain.com analysis, which noted that long-term holders have distributed $60 billion worth of supply in the last 30-days.</p>.<p>Of long-term holders' supply moved since the bitcoin's bottom of $15,479 hit during the FTX collapse two years ago, 21 per cent of it has happened in November, which is the "heaviest profit-taking we have seen so far this cycle," according to a post of _checkonchain.com on X. </p>