India needs to create 11.5 crore jobs by 2030: Study

By Ruchi Bhatia

India needs to create 11.5 crore jobs by 2030 as more people enter the workforce, a study showed, suggesting the South Asian nation has to boost services and manufacturing to keep the economy expanding.

Asia’s third largest economy will need to generate 1.65 crore jobs each year, up from 1.24 crore annually in the last decade, Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist at Natixis SA, wrote in a report Monday. About 1.04 crore jobs will need to be from the formal sector, she added.

“To achieve this herculean task, India’s growth engine needs to fire on all cylinders, from manufacturing to services in the next five years,” she said in a research note.

While India’s economy is expected to grow more than 7 per cent this year— among the fastest in the world, the pace is still not rapid enough to create jobs for its 140 crore people. High youth unemployment is a challenge for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he seeks an unprecedented third term in office in the ongoing national elections.

Despite India’s economy generating 11.2 crore jobs over the last decade, only about 10 per cent of jobs are formal, Nguyen wrote. The country’s overall labor force participation rate stands at 58 per cent, much lower than its Asian peers, according to the World Bank.

Nguyen said India’s services sector, which makes up more than half of the gross domestic product, has limited scope in terms of headcount and quality of labor. This means India can tap into the manufacturing sector and compete for firms and countries actively looking to diversify from a China-centric supply chain, she added.

“The incoming administration needs to jump on the manufacturing train and capitalize on demographic and geopolitical tailwinds,” she said in the note. “Even if the road forward is challenging, it is never too late to walk down the right path.”